Regime collapse in Pyongyang

On Nov. 7, Defense Secretary Robert Gates visited his South Korean counterpart Kim Jang-soo to underscore the solidarity between the United States and the Republic of Korea with regard to the oft-intransigent North Korea. Sending an unmistakable message to Pyongyang — and Asia in general — about how seriously America views the security situation on the Korean Peninsula, Mr. Gates was accompanied by the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the admiral commanding all American forces in the Pacific, and the four-star general commanding all troops in South Korea.

Notably absent from this contingent, however, were any State Department officials. This omission was critical because though military tension continues to pervade the Korean Peninsula, there is another crisis looming that could actually portend greater global disruptions than even a North Korean attack, and this crisis will require all the diplomatic skill we possess. It involves the collapse of the regime.

North Korean President Kim Jong-il will soon celebrate his 66th birthday amid widespread, though unconfirmed, rumors of deteriorating health. The Kim regime is unquestionably the world’s most anachronistic government, and even absent rumors of his imminent death, Kim’s totalitarian regime will eventually join the corpses of the Soviet Union, East Germany and other former dictatorships. Of great concern to North Korea’s neighbors in the region, however, is the prospect of a no-notice regime collapse whereby the North becomes totally dependent upon surrounding nations — particularly South Korea — for its physical survival.

Such concern is well placed. Shortly after World War II, Kim Il-sung took the reins of power in North Korea and became dictator. As early as the late 1960s, he began grooming one of his sons — Kim Jong-il — to succeed him. By 1980 the elder Kim formally and publicly proclaimed the son to be the heir to the throne. One by one, he gave him the key positions of power, laying the foundation for that inevitable day. When Kim Il-sung in fact died unexpectedly in 1994 the transition of power was relatively smooth because Kim Jong-il already held the most important posts and the nation had been told decades in advance that he would eventually become leader. In today’s North Korea, no such preparation has been made by Kim Jong-il and the consequences could be dire for the region if he should die unexpectedly as his father before him.

There are many powerful figures within both the ruling party and military in North Korea that would almost certainly make multiple and competing claims for power in the event Kim Jong-il suddenly died, thus causing a great deal of chaos and confusion within North Korea’s power ministries. Since the end of the Korean War, Pyongyang has ruled via personality cult whereby god-like powers have routinely been attributed to North Korean leaders. Suddenly shorn of that “legitimacy,” any figure that tried to seize power would have a significantly more difficult time governing; with competing orders coming from multiple leaders, who would the people follow? Such a condition could see the entire system of governance in North Korea collapse. This is the nightmare scenario. If robust contingency planning is not done quickly by the surrounding nations, the entire region could suffer severe consequences in the event of collapse. If recent experience is any indication, however, there is little reason for optimism.

The U.S. government at every level was roundly criticized for its abysmal planning and subsequent execution for Hurricane Katrina, and the nation’s senior military leaders have likewise been severely censured for their failure to adequately plan for “Phase IV” operations in Iraq, grossly understating the difficulty of the task — despite the fact so many experts warned of precisely the problems that came to pass.

Given the lateness of the hour we must immediately convene a group of high-ranking diplomatic and military officials from the United States, Russia, China, South Korea, Japan and other surrounding nations to begin serious planning for a no-notice regime-collapse scenario in North Korea. Germany should co-host the conference, as it has invaluable experience on what happened (and what should have happened) when it was reunified after the collapse of communism. This meeting should focus on identifying donor nations to provide immediate help with refugee camps, feeding displaced persons, providing shelter, etc.

Next, the group must address the military tensions that would result between North and South Korea. But it must also take into consideration the concerns of China and Russia regarding what happens on their southern borders. However, maximum effort should be made to assist a successor government in maintaining solvency. The absolute worst possible outcome — as we’ve seen conclusively in Iraq — would be the dissolution of the government; no effort should be spared to avoid this outcome.

Given Kim Jong-il’s age, the fact no successor has been groomed and the near-certainty that his death would bring about a bloody fight for power among senior party and military leaders within that country, the chances of this scenario coming to pass are anything but remote. If we know we failed utterly in preparing for a Category 4 hurricane and post-combat Iraq, we must surely now begin serious international planning for the prospect of a no-notice post-Kim Jong-il North Korea. If we fail in this case, the economic and humanitarian disaster that would likely result will dwarf Katrina and Iraq combined. The time to act is now.

Maj. Daniel L. Davis is a cavalry officer who fought in Desert Storm in 1991 and served in Afghanistan in 2005. The opinions expressed are his own and do not reflect the official position of the Department of Defense or the Army.