Giuliani falls far behind in Florida

BOCA RATON, Fla. — Florida now appears to be a two-way race between Mitt Romney and Sen. John McCain, as two new polls show Rudolph W. Giuliani losing support after skipping six straight presidential-nomination contests.

Photos:Giuliani, McCain on the Florida trail

Just 48 hours before the Florida primary, the former Massachusetts governor and the senator from Arizona are deadlocked at 30 percent, according a Reuters-CSPAN-Zogby poll released yesterday. Another poll, by Rasmussen Reports, showed Mr. Romney up by six percentage points over Mr. McCain.

But both polls show the former New York City mayor unable to reignite his campaign. The Zogby poll showed Mr. Giuliani slumping to fourth place — one point behind former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee — at 13 percent, down two points from its last poll. The Rasmussen poll put Mr. Giuliani at 14 percent.

“Giuliani is becoming less of a factor in Florida,” pollster John Zogby said. “This is a two-man race: It’s all coming down to McCain versus Romney.”

Mr. Giuliani’s campaign embarked on a risky strategy of not focusing on the big three early contests — Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina — and three other smaller contests, to target Florida, where his campaign strategists viewed the electorate as a better fit. The strategy appeared to pay off — three different candidates won among the first six contests and none has been able to break out of the pack.

But the former mayor did not foresee plummeting in the national polls, which he led for months, and all but disappearing from media reports about the Republican race.

“It’s clear that his support is sinking, and he’s being crowded out by two men who have already won primaries,” Mr. Zogby said. “The best you can say about his strategy is that it was risky, and the worst you can say is that it was foolish.”

Mr. Giuliani defended his strategy on CBS’ “Face the Nation,” but sidestepped a question about whether he would drop out if he lost, having pinned so much on a win in the state. “We’re going to win in Florida,” he said. “We have been campaigning here very steadily since the early voting began. There’s been an unprecedented, I believe, amount of early voting, so, I think we’re going to do very well here.”

Mr. Zogby said his latest poll takes into account early voting.

The two front-runners, meanwhile, have been locked in a battle to win over Republicans because the primary will be closed, the first such contest that will not allow independents or Democrats to cast ballots. Mr. McCain won New Hampshire and South Carolina among conservatives, according to most exit polls, but Mr. Romney took more conservatives in his home state of Michigan.

Mr. Romney now holds leads among Republican voters who describe themselves as conservative or very conservative, the Zogby poll found, while Mr. McCain has an edge among Florida moderates. The poll put Mr. Romney ahead 41 percent to 19 percent among the very conservative, but Mr. McCain ahead 42 percent to 17 percent among moderates. However, the gap narrowed to six percentage points for “conservative” voters, with Mr. Romney commanding 34 percent support to Mr. McCain’s 28 percent.

“Romney is ticking up a bit, and he’s getting strong support from conservatives,” Mr. Zogby said. Another reason is the economy, which is Mr. Romney’s strong suit. The poll found the issue top among likely voters, at 39 percent. The war on terrorism ranked second at 14 percent, just ahead of the war in Iraq at 12 percent.

Mr. McCain defended his focus on national security, telling reporters in Polk City: “Even if the economy is the, quote, No. 1 issue, the real issue will remain America’s security. And if they choose to say, ‘Look, I do not need this guy, because he’s not as good on home-loan mortgages,’ or whatever it is, I understand about that, I will accept that verdict. I am running because of the transcendental challenge of the 21st century, which is radical Islamic extremism.”

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