O'Malley finding Warner's path rough

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ANNAPOLIS — Gov. Martin O'Malley's top staffers pitched the governor's $1.4 billion tax plan passed during the recent special General Assembly session as a political effort akin to the one former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner passed in 2004, which elevated him to national political prominence.

Mr. Warner was hailed in national Democratic circles for doing the near-impossible: increasing taxes and improving his approval rating.

But after Maryland's special session closed in November, Mr. O'Malley's public-approval rating dropped — not the outcome called for in the Warner playbook.

An analysis by The Washington Times and interviews with key Virginia leaders shows Mr. O'Malley, a Democrat, followed a more abbreviated version of the Warner plan, and suffered politically as a result.

"Warner left office very, very popular, despite having raised a lot of money for the state," said Robert D. Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University, which polled Mr. Warner's public approval frequently while he was governor.

"I think O'Malley was hoping he'd get much the same response, and he got a very different one," he said.

The key to Mr. Warner's success, say his former staffers, was a three-fold political strategy: make serious budget cuts before going to the taxpayers for more money; after developing the tax plan open the governor to questions from the public at Town Hall meetings across the state; and after raising the taxes, show the return for the taxpayers in improved services.

"It was an unrelenting, eye-on-the-ball communications effort, all four years, to make sure an overall tax increase wasn't a bad thing, but that Virginians saw it was getting the government they deserved without having that big a hit on their pocketbooks," said Ellen Qualls, Mr. Warner's former press secretary.

During his first two years in office, while the state faced a long-term, $6 billion budget shortfall, Mr. Warner froze salaries for state workers, shut down state-run liquor stores and closed the state's Department of Motor Vehicles one day a week.

After he developed his tax plan — which included a restructuring of the personal income tax, the sales tax, and an increase in real estate taxes — Mr. Warner held at least 50 "Town-Hall" style meetings across Virginia.