Will Air Force’s extra cash improve its readiness?

Since early 2001, the U.S. Air Force has received more than $200 billion above and beyond what was then planned for it in the medium-term future.

This $200 billion “plus-up” does not include any of the approximate $80 billion that the Air Force has received to support its operations in the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Has this extra money been put to good use? Is today’s Air Force any larger? Is its equipment inventory more modern? Is it more ready to fight?

In early 2001, the Pentagon anticipated an approximate budget of $850 billion for the Air Force for the period from 2001 to 2009.

Not counting $80 billion-plus subsequently received for the conduct of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Air Force’s “base” - nonwar - budget was increased by more than $200 billion to $1.06 trillion.

Did this additional $200 billion reverse three central, negative trends that have beset the Air Force for decades?

Did the extra $200 billion stem the tide of a shrinking and aging tactical aircraft inventory, and a force becoming less ready to fight?

These negative trends have been thoroughly documented. A comprehensive documentation of them is available in the various analyses of Franklin C. “Chuck” Spinney; the most recent of those, based on data up to the late 1990s, is available in a 75-page briefing, “Defense Death Spiral,” available at the Web site www.d-n-i.net/fcs/defense_death _spiral/contents.htm.

Consistent data on Air Force budgets for the entire post-World War II period are readily available to the public, but data on the size of the Air Force in terms of aircraft are not.

In lieu of a year-by-year count of actual tactical aircraft for this period, the Air Force Historical Research Agency at Maxwell Air Force Base in Montgomery, Ala., has published an analysis of “wing equivalents” of the USAF’s force structure since the late 1930s.

Although this analysis does not track the shrinkage and growth of the Air Force combat aircraft inventory with the best measure - actual aircraft - and may overcount the forces available in more recent times compared with the past, it is used here as the only USAF data available to the public from 1947 to the present day.

The tactical “wing equivalent” inventory of the Air Force is as small today as at any point in the post-World War II period. From a 1957 high of 61 “wing equivalents,” it persistently hovers in the 21st century at 16 to 18.

Clearly, the trend has been for the force to shrink significantly over time, despite some ups and downs - mostly downs - since 1946.

The budget, however, shows a very different story. There also have been budget ups and downs, but the overall trend is for the budget to remain constant in inflation-adjusted dollars, and today the amount of spending for the Air Force is above the overall trend line.

Story Continues →