EDITORIAL: A dubious truce

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The six-month truce scheduled to begin Thursday between Israel and Hamas is in all likelihood a respite in the larger war between Israel and Tehran's Palestinian proxies. The agreement brokered by Egypt would work this way _Hamas would end the firing of rockets into Israel, and Israel would end retaliatory strikes against rocket launchers. If the border stays quiet, next week Israel would ease the blockade of Gaza. Egypt would take action to prevent the smuggling of rockets and other weaponry from its territory into Gaza for use against Israel. If Israel determines that Egypt is serious about ending the weapons smuggling, then Hamas, Cairo and European Union representatives would begin talks on opening the Rafah crossing - the main border crossing between Egypt and Hamas-controlled Gaza. The reopening of Rafah was originally thought to be part of a package deal that would include the release of Cpl. Gilad Shalit, an Israeli soldier kidnapped by Hamas.

But it is hardly clear that Cpl. Shalit will be released anytime soon under this agreement, which only commits the two sides to starting negotiations on the Shalit case beginning next week if the truce holds. And in all likelihood, if Cpl. Shalit is ever released, Israel will pay a very steep price: the release of as many as several Palestinians in jail for terrorist attacks and other crimes. Moreover, the Rafah reopening has triggered a firestorm of controversy in Israel. Specifically, the agreement may give Israel no role in monitoring the reopened Rafah crossing - even though it has proven to be a conduit for smuggling weapons and terrorists across the border in recent months. Instead, the crossing would be monitored by the European Union, the government of Egypt and Hamas - which in January destroyed part of the border fence, permitting hundreds of thousands of people, civilians and terrorists, to cross the border into Egypt. Israeli officials have told this newspaper that some of these terrorists made their way further south and crossed into Israel, where they are suspected of carrying out a number of attacks.

Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, his popularity at rock-bottom, has nothing to lose if the deal strengthens Hamas before it eventually collapses. The most interesting question is what Defense Minister Ehud Barak will do. Mr. Barak served as prime minister of Israel from 1999-2001 - during which time he unilaterally withdrew Israeli forces from southern Lebanon (bringing Hezbollah to Israel's northern border). He failed disastrously in his effort to reach a peace accord with Palestinian Authority Chairman Yasser Arafat and was defeated for re-election in a 25-point landslide. Since becoming Labor Party leader once again last year, Mr. Barak has been working to rehabilitate his image and convince Israelis that he is tough on security. Supporting this truce with Hamas could be the beginning of the end of his political comeback.