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A different outlook is: Comodities dealers in the soft comodities look over at the dealers in OIL and asked themselves "If those guys can do all that based soley on rumors of shortages, why can't we?'
Lately it appears countries are finding excessive amounts of the SHORT rice crop in their warehouses, and surprisingly there appears to be NO or minimal shortage after all! There truely are countries who have literally done 'nothing' to better the status of their citizens, and should be held to account for their inaction. (That is unlikely to happen, though).
Roughly 20% of every comodity is priced on RUMOR not fact. Makes a lazy market surprisingly active ONCE IN A WHILE. (The word floating around my territory in MEXICO is that the United States is going BROKE!) That's the fact here, is it true, apparently not, at least, not yet!
Year after year, time after time, we've seen prices go up rapidly and then decline the same way. It's a game, and since we don't know the rules, we are not ALLOWED to play.
The ones who are supposed to govern and make the rules are not keeping up with the inovations occurring in these markets and are, therefore getting caught literally FLAT FOOTED when the BROWN STUFF hits the fan. (They are also not being paid enough to stay in their jobs, considering they, when up to date in their field, are worth, at least 20 -30 times what the government pays them, in the open market.)
Place incentives in their paths. Give them 20 - 30% of the fines or recoveries that accrue from their actions, thereby incentivising their employment, and giving them purposeful work.
Government work is exceptionally under rewarded, and in most cases, deservedly so, BUT in the case of regulators, these guys produce the fines, recover losses and streamline the markets. They deserve some level of recognition for what they do, and a little bonus competition would go a long way to limit excesses in these markets (and keep GOOD people in Government).
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