Korean peninsula peregrinations

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The news flowing out of the Korean peninsula lately has been almost euphoric. Even so, a dollop of skepticism about its ultimate effect seems to be in order.

In Seoul, President Lee Myung-bak delivered a rousing inaugural address, saying: "We must move from the age of ideology into the age of pragmatism." The new president seemed to distance himself from the leftist ideology of his predecessor, President Roh Moo Hyun, but on the critical issue of relations with the United States, he said only he would "strengthen our strategic alliance with the United States."

In Pyongyang, the New York Philharmonic gave a rousing concert featuring Antonin Dvorak's Ninth or "New World" Symphony, which celebrates America's melting pot, and the haunting "Arirang" Korean folk song lamenting the trials of a jilted lover crossing a mountain pass. North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-il, however, did not attend, sending an unmistakable signal that the orchestra's good will meant little.

In security posture, South Korea is at a crossroads, although few Korean leaders appear ready to confront this issue. Conversations with Korean officials, scholars, politicians and military officers suggested they have underestimated the dissatisfaction among Americans who have long dealt with Korea.

In particular, former President Roh's policy toward North Korea's plans for acquiring nuclear arms has bordered on appeasement in the eyes of some Americans. In contrast, President George Bush's administration has demanded that North Korea abandon its nuclear program in return for normal economic and diplomatic relations.

Moreover, South Korea has been cultivating relations with China despite China's history of dominating Korea, which has aroused suspicion among Americans worried about China's intentions. At the same time, Koreans have nurtured a hatred for Japan, a U.S. ally today, rooted in 35 years of Japanese colonial rule that ended in 1945.

Since President Lee won election in December, Korean and American pundits have speculated that he would try to restore the good relations Korea experienced with America after the Korean War of 1950-53. Mr. Lee himself, however, has said little about this. He told foreign correspondents in Seoul in January that South Korea's alliance with the U.S. "is going to be creatively revamped."

Then came the inaugural address devoted largely to domestic matters, the president saying only that he would "strengthen traditional friendly relations with the United States into a future-oriented partnership." He lacked specifics but perhaps has something in mind for a Washington visit scheduled for April.

South Korean military leaders have been urging the U.S. to slow down a steady decline in U.S. forces posted in South Korea. Barring an unexpected turnaround, however, that trend appears to be set because American senior officers say those troops are needed elsewhere, such as Iraq, and South Korea can defend itself.

The commanding officer of U.S. forces in Korea, Gen. Burwell Bell, was quoted in the Wall Street Journal that even though North Korea's forces are deployed in a "threatening posture," their weapons and equipment are old and their training is poor. The Russians and Chinese have stopped supplying them, Gen. Bell said, and the North Korean army's capabilities have deteriorated in recent years.

In contrast, Gen. Bell was quoted as saying the South Korean army "is world class." He said: "I proclaim loudly and clearly that the capacities of the [South] Korean forces are second to none on the globe, and it would not be wise for the North Koreans to test that."

Kim Jong-il's absence from the New York Philharmonic concert did not cause much comment, possibly because the American music and culture critics accompanying the orchestra were not familiar with the Stalinesque ways of Pyongyang. Surely no North Korean missed the point, which was that Mr. Kim did not see the visit as any breakthrough in his regime's relations with the U.S.

Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice did not miss the point. She was quoted in the New York Times as saying: "The North Korean regime is still the North Korean regime ... so I don't think we should get carried away with what listening to Dvorak is going to do in North Korea."

Nor were some members of the orchestra taken in. Dawn Hannay, a violist, told the Times she doubted the visit would be effective, despite the efforts of North Koreans to shine a favorable light on it. "There are a lot of us," she said, "who are not buying into this party line that music transcends the political and we are opening up North Korea with a single concert."

Richard Halloran is a freelance writer and former New York Times correspondent based in Honolulu.