Illinois bellwether

Democrats are touting the gain of former House Speaker Dennis Hastert’s Illinois House seat in a special election Saturday as a sign of Democratic headwinds. Some Republicans deny it, citing poor candidate selection. But candidate selection is only a partial explanation and it ignores the numbers.

Wealthy scientist and Democratic businessman Bill Foster almost certainly could not have secured such a clear 53-47 victory over Republican dairy magnate Jim Oberweis in this Republican-leaning district without a “change” election atmosphere fueled by record Democratic turnout and without what was almost certainly a rebuke to the Republican Party by a sizeable proportion of 14th District voters who previously supported Republicans. Closer to home, one expects that both parties eyeing the seat held by Rep. Tom Davis, Virginia Republican, are taking note.

Illinois’ 14th Congressional District, located due west of Chicago, supported President Bush over John Kerry by a 55-44 margin in 2004, and previously in 2000 it supported Mr. Bush by a 54-42 margin over Vice President Al Gore. This is a Republican-leaning district. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report deems it “R+5.” Mr. Hastert held this seat without serious challenge for nearly 20 years. All else being equal, a qualified Republican candidate should expect to beat a similarly qualified Democratic candidate here.

Now, the Republican Mr. Oberweis may not have been “similarly qualified”: He could well become this season’s “poor candidate selection” exemplar. He had lost two previous bids for the Senate and one for governor of Illinois. But was he sufficiently “the wrong candidate” to lose by six points in a two-time Bush district? That question is not so clear. He may simply have been the victim of record Democratic turnout: That would be the “change” thesis more than the “rebuke” one, though it clearly would be both.

Nationally, is this a “change” election, or a “rebuke”? Signs of “change” have abounded this year in House primaries and special elections. In Maryland’s February primary, one-quarter of the state’s House delegation was turned out. In Massachusetts, Republican Jim Ogonowski ran unexpectedly close in a loss to Democrat Nikki Tsongas. That also is a sign of “change.” We will know more this evening when the results from today’s Indiana special election to replace the late Democratic Rep. Julia Carson, who died in December. Her grandson, Andre Carson, faces Republican state Rep. Jon Elrod in a Democratic-leaning Indianapolis district.

“Rebuke” is also in the air: One special election in upstate New York two weeks ago to fill a state Senate seat held by Republicans for a century resulted in a stunning upset. Democrat Darrel J. Aubertine defeated Republican William A. Barclay 52-48 despite a Republican registration advantage of 78,454 to 46,824. That would be both “change” and “rebuke.”