128,000 may be dead in Burma

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RANGOON, Burma (AP) — The Red Cross estimated yesterday that the cyclone death toll in Burma could be as high as 128,000 — a much higher figure than the government tally. The U.N. warned a second wave of deaths will follow unless the military regime lets in more aid quickly.

The grim forecast came as heavy rains drenched the devastated Irrawaddy River Delta, disrupting aid operations already struggling to reach up to 2.5 million people in urgent need of food, water and shelter.

"Another couple of days exposed to those conditions can only lead to worsening health conditions and compound the stress people are living in," said Shantha Bloemen, a spokeswoman for UNICEF.

A tropical depression in the Bay of Bengal added new worries, but late in the day forecasters said it was weakening and unlikely to grow into a cyclone.

Burma's government issued a revised casualty toll last night, saying 38,491 were known dead and 27,838 were missing.

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, however, said its estimate put the number of dead between 68,833 and 127,990.

The Red Cross estimated the number of people needing help at between 1.64 million and 2.51 million, after the cyclone surged over the low-lying delta May 3.

"The government has a responsibility to assist their people in the event of a natural disaster," said Amanda Pitt of the U.N. Office for Humanitarian Affairs.

"We are here to do what we can and facilitate their efforts and scale up their response. It is clearly inadequate, and we do not want to see a second wave of deaths as a result of that not being scaled up," she said.

But the junta refuses to accept help from foreign aid authorities. It insists Burma can handle the disaster on its own.

Burma's prime minister, Gen. Thein Sein, told visiting Thai Prime Minister Samak Sundaravej yesterday that the government is in control of the situation and didn't need foreign experts.

"They have their own team to cope with the situation," Mr. Samak said after returning to Bangkok. He said the junta gave him a "guarantee" there was no starvation or disease outbreak among survivors.

But critics say the government is woefully lacking in helicopters, trucks and boats as well as the expertise needed to distribute aid to survivors, who have jammed into monasteries and relief centers or are camping outside.

Burma has limited the few international aid workers in the country to Rangoon, the country's biggest city, and used police to keep foreigners from going to the delta.

Meanwhile, U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called a meeting of key donors and Burma's neighbors to weigh options for speeding aid.

"Even though the Myanmar government has shown some sense of flexibility, at this time it's far, far too short," he said, using the name given to Burma by the ruling junta. "The magnitude of this situation requires much more mobilization of resources and aid workers."

• Associated Press writers Edith M. Lederer and John Heilprin at the United Nations; Matthew Lee in Washington; Frank Jordans in Geneva; and Sutin Wannabovorn in Bangkok contributed to this report.