Bing Crosby vs. MTV

Generational politics are always fascinating in American elections, but for a variety of reasons they could play an even bigger role in the race to the White House this year. When it comes to age, the bookends — America’s youngest and oldest voters — are undergoing significant transformations. And despite the surge in registration among the MTV generation, it is the voters who grew up on Bing Crosby that might provide a surprising twist in this election.

Let’s begin with younger voters. In the 2004 presidential election, Americans under age 30 represented about 17 percent of the overall electorate. Many believe Republicans’ current unpopularity with this age group stems from that generation’s opposition to the war in Iraq. But that conclusion fails to explain a broader historical trend. Despite the registration and turnout surge among those under 30 in the 2008 primaries, GOP problems with this cohort began well before the Bush Administration.

Fissures with younger voters started approximately 15 years ago. The data from the University of Michigan’s American National Election Studies (ANES) between 1952 and 1988 reveals a pattern of support for the GOP among younger voters during that quarter of a century. Republicans won the two-party presidential vote among those under 30 in seven out of the 10 presidential elections between 1952 and 1988 (1952,1956,1968, 1972, 1980,1984, 1988). Even in the years when the Vietnam War raged — 1968 and 1972 — a majority of Americans under 30 voted for Republican Richard Nixon. Young voters sided with Democrats in only three presidential contests during that period (1960, 1964 and 1976).

This changed in the 1990s. Somewhere between watching “The Real World” and listening to the “Smashing Pumpkins,” young voters broke sharply against Republican presidential candidates — beginning with the Bill Clinton-George H.W. Bush race for the White House in 1992.

According to the ANES surveys, over 60 percent of voters under age 30 voted for Democrats for the White House in 1992 (63 percent), 1996 (64 percent), 2000 (60 percent) and 2004 (66 percent) — a big shift from the previous 40 years. And while “Seinfeld” is over, anti-Republican sentiment among the younger crowd is not. The latest Rasmussen Obama-McCain head-to-head poll shows the Democratic senator leading 54-37 percent among likely voters under the age of 30.

The other end of the age spectrum — voters 65 and over — reveals a different pattern. In 2004, the senior-citizen cohort was about the same size as the younger group — 16 percent of the total electorate, according to exit polls. And like younger voters, this group also consistently backed Republican presidential candidates between 1952 and 1988. GOP White House aspirants won the senior-citizen vote nine out of 10 times during that period (choosing Lyndon Johnson over Barry Goldwater in 1964).

Yet in a political swing that looked like Lawrence Welk joining forces with Bart Simpson, older Americans became more reliably Democratic during the 1990s. Voters 65 and older supported Democratic presidential candidates in 1992, 1996 and 2000. Bill Clinton won handily among seniors in his two runs for the White House. Then George W. Bush narrowly lost among seniors in 2000 (by a 50 - 47 percent margin according to exit polls), but beat John Kerry by five points among those over age 65 in 2004.

Now these “electoral bookends” are diverging. Despite all the hoopla about younger voters helping Barack Obama, it is the other end of the age spectrum that might be the wild card in November. Seniors turn out at higher rates than their younger counterparts — by anywhere between 15 and 25 points in presidential elections, according to ANES data. As the baby boomers continue to age, and more Americans live longer, the percentage of seniors in the electorate continues to swell.

What will happen in 2008? Right now it looks like John McCain has a large advantage with older voters in a head-to-head match-up against Mr. Obama. The latest Rasmussen poll shows the Arizona senator leads by a 52-36 percent margin among likely voters 65 and over, so can a group that is growing in its proportion of the electorate, exhibits the highest turnout rates and supports Mr. McCain by double digits, provide a huge boost to the Republican candidate? You bet. You would never know it from all the younger-voter hype in the mainstream media: It’s the Bing Crosby generation that could generate a “White Christmas” for Mr. McCain in November.