The Iranian threat is real

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Today, the Israeli government considers fundamentalist-Islamic Iran the highest risk to its long-term existence. Iran has been providing every enemy of Israel with financial resources and active military assistance that has created a wall of thousands of missiles aimed at every major population center in Israel.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's rhetoric regarding wiping Israel off the map has been accompanied by relentless efforts that set the stage for the fulfillment of his dream. He is not just talking: He is backing his words with very bold and dangerous acts — and thus far, he is getting away with it. This unfortunate reality in combination with the Iranian development of nuclear weapons places Iran at the top of the agenda of Israeli national security and intelligence agencies.

The most crucial piece of intelligence that Israel seeks is how soon the first bomb will roll off the Iranian production lines. As evident in the case of the Iraqi nuclear reactor that was destroyed by Israeli bombers in 1981, Israel will time its actions based on how close the enemy is to reaching its goal and whether all other diplomatic and peaceful means have failed.

Israeli Mossad Chief Meir Dagan told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Feb. 4, that the Mossad estimates Iran would develop a nuclear weapon within three years. The 3,000 fast-spinning centrifuges running at the Natanz nuclear complex are enriching uranium.

Mr. Ahmadinejad has never been able to give a convincing explanation as to why Iran is the first country to have built a uranium-enrichment plant without having a single civilian nuclear power reactor that could burn its output. Iran is now installing a more advanced centrifuge at Natanz — a move that will accelerate its nuclear capability.

The development of nuclear weapons by Iran is accompanied by development of long-range missiles. Iran already possesses missiles that can reach Israel or any other target in the Middle East and is now developing intercontinental ballistic missiles that will be able to reach Europe and beyond.

The technology Iran is using to build nuclear bombs is the same used at the Manhattan Project about 65 years ago. Pure fission bombs, which are the simplest nuclear bombs, are made of enriched uranium. Although this technology is ancient, the potential devastation is very real. After all, the Hiroshima bomb was made of enriched uranium.

The first and most logical solution to eliminating the Iranian nuclear threat is a regime change. This means reversal of the revolutionary changes that have taken place in Iran since 1978 and bringing back modern democratic elements to take control of the country.

The United States should actively support legitimate Iranian moderate groups inside and outside of Iran who oppose the current leadership and yearn to bring about regime change: Support must focus on political alignment, financial backing, covert operations and a media campaign.

Another option to remove the Iranian threat is surgical bombings, similar to the Israeli operation in Syria in the fall of 2007 that eliminated North Korean-sponsored nuclear installations. High-precision surgical bombings can eliminate the Iranian facilities that design and build nuclear-related materials and long-range missiles. However, with the recent supply to Iran of sophisticated Russian missile air defense systems, surgical bombing is going to be more challenging.

If Israel will have to act alone to mitigate the Iranian threat, its preemptive defensive actions will clearly escalate into a full-scale war with Iran and its surrogates in the Middle East. The threat of a nuclear confrontation will become very real. If Israel is bombarded with thousands of Iranian-sponsored missiles that will cause major civilian casualties and threaten its very existence, it will not hesitate to use its nuclear arsenal to fight back. This arsenal was built specifically to deter such threats. Nuclear confrontation in the oil-rich Middle East can easily trigger "World War III."

Iran has made its intentions clear beyond a shadow of doubt. The free world should remove from Iran the means to execute its threat and potentially cause "World War III." This task will become increasingly exigent every day that Iran is allowed to implement its ambitious yet destructive scheme to control the entire Middle East and beyond.

The Iranian threats should be taken very seriously, because there is an apocalyptic Islamic Shi'ite sect that is eager for the arrival of its messiah, Imam al-Mahdi.

Rami Loya, who served in the Israeli Defense Forces, is an Iraqi-born spy novelist.