- The Washington Times - Friday, May 23, 2008

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) - The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season should be about as bad as normal or slightly busier, with a good chance of six to nine hurricanes forming, federal forecasters said yesterday in a new way of making predictions.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials also said 12 to 16 named storms and two to five major hurricanes could form.

They said there is only a 60 percent to 70 percent chance for their predictions to come true, the first time officials gave a probability. They took that step after years of criticism of their long-range forecasts, which have usually been fairly accurate but in some cases have been way off.

For example, government forecasters expected 12 to 15 named storms in 2005, but 28 formed, making it the busiest season on record.

Forecasters stress that residents should always be prepared regardless of seasonal forecasts because even a slow season can be disastrous. Seasonal forecasts don’t predict whether, where or when any of these storms may hit land.

“We don’t want anyone changing their preparation plans because of the seasonal outlook. The only number that matters is the number 1, the one storm that you need to prepare for,” said Dennis Feltgen, spokesman for the National Hurricane Center, which is part of NOAA.

An average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes, of which two reach major status with winds of more than 110 mph.

Forecasters and emergency responders fear that coastal residents will be apathetic this year after the United States escaped the past two storm seasons virtually unscathed.

“Living in a coastal state means having a plan for each and every hurricane season. Review or complete emergency plans now - before a storm threatens,” said Conrad C. Lautenbacher, NOAA administrator. “Planning and preparation is the key to storm survival and recovery.”

Colorado State University weather researcher William Gray expects 15 named storms, eight hurricanes, four of which will be major this year.

Last year, there were 15 named storms and six hurricanes, two of which were major. The government predicted 13 to 17 named storms, seven to 10 hurricanes and three to five major hurricanes.

The Atlantic season begins June 1 and runs through Nov. 30.