Gilmore poised for Senate nod at convention

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By Gary Emerling

Virginia Republicans will convene in downtown Richmond this weekend to decide on two candidates who could help define the future of the party and the political leanings of the state as a whole.

The roughly 5,000 delegates attending the 2008 Virginia Republican Convention - to be held tomorrow and Saturday at the Greater Richmond Convention Center - are expected to select former Gov. James S. Gilmore III as the party's nominee to replace retiring Sen. John W. Warner.

Mr. Gilmore is expected to defeat Delegate Robert G. Marshall for the party nomination and the chance to run against former Gov. Mark Warner, a Democrat. The two Warners are not related.

But his margin of victory remains uncertain and could be a sign of his prospects in the crucial contest against Mr. Warner: The race coincides with this year's presidential election, in which Virginia could be a swing state.

"The very fact that the Republicans have another uphill climb in a statewide campaign is an indication of a state that has become far more competitive, and it's a state Republicans can no longer rely on for relatively easy victories," said Bob Holsworth, a political scientist at Virginia Commonwealth University. "It's not red, it's not blue, it's deep purple."

Mr. Gilmore, 58, served as a county prosecutor before winning the state attorney general's post in 1993 and then the governorship in 1997.

He has raised roughly $1 million - including a $50,000 loan to himself - compared with Mr. Marshall's $78,500, and has said publicly he is looking ahead to facing Mr. Warner in the Senate race.

"I think I'll be the nominee of the party, I don't think that that's gonna be an issue," Mr. Gilmore told editors and reporters at The Washington Times earlier this month. "But we have to get our people to the convention and make sure that they're there, and that they're voting. But we see no indication that I won't be the nominee."

Mr. Marshall, however, has been an outspoken opponent of abortion and gay rights in the General Assembly. The Prince William County legislator is hoping to motivate conservatives by highlighting Mr. Gilmore's stances on issues like illegal immigration and abortion that he says run contrary to conservative beliefs.

Mr. Marshall opposes abortion and thinks life begins at conception. Mr. Gilmore has said abortions performed in the first eight weeks after conception should not be illegal.