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Stock markets are leading indicators. History has shown it tends to leaning between 3 to 9 months. Reasons are complex, a lot is due to sentiment and no one has yet to predict the timing. However, public figures can precipitate sentiment and cause markets to move.
The recession had already been priced into the market prior to Nov 4. The markets went into a tailspin due to Obama's election and folks believing he would really do what he campaigned - essentially kill business incentive and convert the US to a socialist economy worse than anything Europe has and perhaps as worse as Cuba's. Sentiment breeds sentiment unless countered and the bears not only had an Obama run but then set off a stampede.
The recent uptick in the markets is due, ihmo, to Obama naming people that are not members of the CPUSA (Communist Party USA). People looked at the P/E's, the yields and the incoming government financial advisers and realized the market was oversold.
Unless Obama sets off another panic, the markets should stabilize close to their historic lows for a major recession. Ask you financial adviser but I'd guess around 30% to 35% off the highs.
Still, with Obama and his only true skill of running for office, one never knows if his neo-Marxist background will trump common sense.
Happy Thanksgiving and Merry Christmas!
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