Inside Politics

State of the race

“It stands to reason that the financial situation has been a campaign ‘moment’ that has favored Barack Obama. So far, its effect is similar to him winning the nomination in June or heading to Europe in July,” Jay Cost writes at www.realclearpolitics.com.

“An additional few points are worth noting,” Mr. Cost said.

“First, the number of undecided voters has increased in the last three weeks, from a low of 6.3 percent of the electorate on 9/8 to 8.8 percent [Monday] night.

“Second, the polls themselves have been very volatile this month. The Gallup tracking poll had a crazy week last week, and individual pollsters are disagreeing with each other quite a bit. …

“Third, there is a good subset of the electorate that claims to make up its mind in October or November. That might be hard for political junkies who have been following every twist and turn for 18 months to believe - but it’s true! In 1996, 30 percent of respondents claimed to make up their minds a day to a month before the election. In 2000, that number was also 30 percent. In 2004, 21 percent of the public made that claim.

“These three points indicate that caution is required in projecting the state of the race forward. There seems to be a lot of uncertainty out there. …

“What really matters is if, when, and how this financial situation resolves itself. It is fair to say that, on a purely political basis, McCain needs a resolution more than Obama. …

“Nothing else is getting through right now. McCain needs this to drop off the front page as a first step to recover the ground he has lost in the last 20 days.”

Who’s in charge?

“In 1933, Franklin Roosevelt inherited an economic crisis. He understood that his first job was to restore confidence, to give people a sense that somebody was in charge, that something was going to be done,” David Brooks writes in the New York Times.

“This generation of political leaders is confronting a similar situation, and, so far, they have failed utterly and catastrophically to project any sense of authority, to give the world any reason to believe that this country is being governed. Instead, by rejecting the rescue package on Monday, they have made the psychological climate much worse,” Mr. Brooks said.

“George W. Bush is completely out of juice, having squandered his influence with Republicans as well as Democrats. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson is a smart moneyman, but an inept legislator. He was told time and time again that House Republicans would not support his bill, and his response was to get down on bended knee before House Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

“House leaders of both parties got wrapped up in their own negotiations, but did it occur to any of them that it might be hard to pass a bill fairly described as a bailout to Wall Street? Was the media darling Barney Frank too busy to notice the 95 Democrats who opposed his bill? Pelosi´s fiery speech at the crucial moment didn´t actually kill this bill, but did she have to act like a Democratic fund-raiser at the most important moment of her career?

“And let us recognize above all the 228 who voted no - the authors of this revolt of the nihilists. They showed the world how much they detest their own leaders and the collected expertise of the Treasury and Fed. They did the momentarily popular thing, and if the country slides into a deep recession, they will have the time and leisure to watch public opinion shift against them.”

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