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By | Wednesday, October 1, 2008

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State of the race

"It stands to reason that the financial situation has been a campaign 'moment' that has favored Barack Obama. So far, its effect is similar to him winning the nomination in June or heading to Europe in July," Jay Cost writes at www.realclearpolitics.com.

"An additional few points are worth noting," Mr. Cost said.

"First, the number of undecided voters has increased in the last three weeks, from a low of 6.3 percent of the electorate on 9/8 to 8.8 percent [Monday] night.

"Second, the polls themselves have been very volatile this month. The Gallup tracking poll had a crazy week last week, and individual pollsters are disagreeing with each other quite a bit. ...

"Third, there is a good subset of the electorate that claims to make up its mind in October or November. That might be hard for political junkies who have been following every twist and turn for 18 months to believe - but it's true! In 1996, 30 percent of respondents claimed to make up their minds a day to a month before the election. In 2000, that number was also 30 percent. In 2004, 21 percent of the public made that claim.

"These three points indicate that caution is required in projecting the state of the race forward. There seems to be a lot of uncertainty out there. ...

"What really matters is if, when, and how this financial situation resolves itself. It is fair to say that, on a purely political basis, McCain needs a resolution more than Obama. ...

"Nothing else is getting through right now. McCain needs this to drop off the front page as a first step to recover the ground he has lost in the last 20 days."

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