OPINION:
OP-ED:
Tomorrow night may prove to be the most- watched of all the campaign debates. After all, Gov. Sarah Palin has been under political house arrest so as not to make major blunders. And the far more experienced and ubiquitous Sen. Joe Biden has indeed made more than his share of gaffes that so far have not damaged Sen. Barack Obama’s running mate, but surely could. Hence, the public is hoping for some sort of fireworks show.
On foreign policy, the talking points will have been carefully scripted and rehearsed. Mrs. Palin will assert that the war in Iraq must be the top priority and that the surge produced the turnaround. Mr. Biden will try to convince viewers that Iraq has prevented us from focusing on the real strategic center of gravity-Afghanistan and Pakistan — while reminding the audience that it was the al Anbar awakening in which Sunni fury against the American occupiers turned on al Qaeda, leading to a reversal of fortune.
Reality is different. These assertions contain both fact and error. Regarding Iraq, violence is thankfully on the wane. But that does not mean the crucial issues of division of power and oil resources and blunting animosity among Shia, Sunni and Kurd have been remotely resolved. As a result, when America begins withdrawing, which we will no matter who is elected president, these powerful centrifugal forces will be released. The question is how much the ensuing crash landing will harm Iraq and Iraqis.
The missing factor in the Afghanistan and Pakistani crucible is our failure to act on the most fundamental forces that are the root causes of the violence and danger instead of reacting to symptoms that cannot resolve the larger issues. In Afghanistan, both Sen. John McCain and Sen. Barack Obama call for more military forces to stabilize conditions on the ground.
But military force alone cannot and will not bring either peace or prosperity to Afghanistan. Nor can military force alone yield political success. There are two overriding issues in Afghanistan. No one is in charge. And civil-sector reforms are missing-in-action.
President Hamid Karzai is not in charge of his country. Taliban control huge swaths of the country. One reason is that the Taliban provide many government services Kabul cannot regarding law, justice, jobs, food and education.
Regarding civil sector reforms, even though Operation Enduring Freedom will soon be seven years old, we — meaning the Afghan government, NATO and the international community — have been derelict in building a functioning government, implementing a system of justice and law and order, creating a legitimate and trustworthy police force, providing jobs, limiting corruption and coping with the narcotic epidemic that includes growing not only poppies but marijuana. As a result, military forces can do so much while the Taliban and al Qaeda grow in strength and the undefined border with Pakistan turns into a Wal-Mart for terrorists and insurgents.
Pakistan is in the midst of four simultaneous crises. Politically, the fledgling government of President Asif Ali Zardari is fighting for its life. Opposition leader Nawaz Sharif is exploiting the errors and failures on the part of the government and huge anti-American sentiments in his efforts to regain office.
Economically, Pakistan is on the ropes. It will soon run out of foreign reserves to pay for the $15 billion to $20 billion balance of payments deficits. Inflation is running at well above 30 percent and is probably much higher. Water, food, energy and electricity are in short demand and growing more so.
The insurgency is growing worse. The destruction of the Islamabad Marriott Hotel is a tragic indicator of the dangers. The Pakistani army is overstretched and lacks the capacity for counter-insurgency war. Friction, tension and the trust deficit between the U.S. and Pakistan are on the rise.
Last, the region is very unstable. Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India along with the ongoing Arab-Israeli-Palestinian conflicts are not unrelated. Yet, the approach on the part of the U.S. has been bilateral. The consequence of these four crises has made Pakistan and the war in Afghanistan arguably the greatest dangers to global stability.
Neither presidential nor vice presidential candidates thus far have fully recognized these realities and proposed actions to deal with them. The debate tomorrow night, probably more entertainment than serious discourse, will do nothing to close these intellectual gaps. Mr. Biden and Mrs. Palin will fall back on campaign slogans and sound bites to support the policies of the top of the ticket.
If there is to be success in Afghanistan and Pakistan, we need to understand the major dangers. Without major and immediate civil reform in Afghanistan, failure is inevitable. Without success in Afghanistan and understanding of the crises in Pakistan, the prospects are grim. But who will listen? And who will lead?
Harlan Ullman is a columnist for The Washington Times and is an adviser to the Pakistani government.
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