Anyone who pronounces this volatile race for the 44th president of the United States as “ovah” (in my students’ parlance) is a fool.
Anything can happen in the next 20 days, and I’ll bet my lost 401(k) retirement dividends that anything will.
We’ve already witnessed head-shaking moments in this fanatic-filled campaign between presidential contenders Republican Sen. John McCain and Democratic Sen. Barack Obama that trigger noticeable swings in the fickle people meters.
While the latest national polls show Mr. Obama pulling ahead of Mr. McCain even in battleground states, we also are fully aware that people are not always entirely truthful with a faceless voice on the other end of the telephone receiver.
Count them: 20 days is an eternity in campaigning. Count them: 10 points is not a comfortable lead for a historic candidacy. Tomorrow is promised to no one.
My skepticism about the premature final call on this tight race is not to suggest which presidential candidate I favor.
My fear is that voters, especially first-timers who buy into the irresponsible predictions that the outcome of the presidential race is a fait accompli - based on which way the punditry pack is pontificating at the moment - may decide to stay home Nov. 4. And registering to vote is not voting.
Former Maryland Lt. Gov. Michael S. Steele, who is now chairman of GOPAC, told me that he’s encountered voters in recent days, “particularly a lot of new voters, who think ’it’s done,’ ’it’s over,’ ’my guy won, so I don’t have to worry about it.’ ”
“They think Barack’s won, and they are no longer looking at the issue as paramount to them,” he said.
The predictions are not only premature, Mr. Steele warned, but he also agreed that the false finality may impact voting.
“This may have a chilling effect to some degree on both sides, and everyone should be about the business of encouraging not only their base but everyone who is of voting age to go vote,” he said.
The “race is over” mantra, Mr. Steele added, “also assumes that the turnout models will be historic, and that is not yet proven. There is still a question of what the turnout will be.”
Mr. Steele said, “McCain has a window, albeit narrow, to let America know what he feels about this economy and about national security … and to make his case to people.” The Arizona Republican, for example, will need to challenge the Democrat’s economic-recovery plan aimed at assisting the middle class.
Wednesday night’s final presidential debate could “bring it,” by providing that defining moment supporters of both campaigns have been “begging” for.
It could, but if the first two debates are a barometer, that’s a big maybe. Unless moderator Bob Schieffer, of CBS’ “Face the Nation,” does as he promises and keeps the candidates focused on the economy and domestic issues and asks pointed follow-up questions - unlike his predecessors.
When a 90-year-old Ohio widow shoots herself because she can’t pay her mortgage and delinquent car owners in the Washington area are reportedly so desperate that they torch their vehicles to collect insurance payments, the voters don’t have time for stump speeches and befuddlement.
Mr. Steele pointed out that there are two groups pushing the idea that the race is over. He also blames the mainstream media.
“Obviously, Obama’s supporters want this over sooner rather than later. Republicans, who have frustrations with the [McCain] campaign and think we should be doing something different, are feeding into the idea that it’s all over but the shouting,” he said.
However, Mr. Steele noted that the polls showed that he had pulled even with his opponent the weekend before the 2006 election was held in his failed bid to win a seat in the U.S. Senate. Late polls also showed Ronald Reagan behind Jimmy Carter and George H.W. Bush behind Michael Dukakis before their victories, he noted.
“Folks ought to hold their powder on this a little,” Mr. Steele said. “This is the same gentleman everyone wrote off a year ago. Underestimate John McCain if you want to, but you may be calling him ’Mr. President’ on Jan. 2.”
Michael Fauntroy, an assistant professor of public policy at George Mason University and a political commentator, was one of those who wrote off Mr. McCain after the senator lost in the Wisconsin Republican primary.
“I said he wouldn’t even make it to New Hampshire, so the last thing I’m going to say is that he can’t win,” Mr. Fauntroy said. “Having said all that, this is a very unlikely victory for him. McCain is in a tough spot.”
Mr. Fauntroy brought up the findings of a recent Associated Press poll about white Americans’ unfavorable views of black Americans. On Tuesday, he also made passing reference to the so-called “Bradley effect,” which refers to elections in which white voters tell pollsters they were going to vote for a black candidate but don’t when they cast their ballots, thus distorting the polling data.
“If Obama were a white candidate, the polls might have an even wider spread,” Mr. Fauntroy said. He explained that Mr. Obama “is going to pay a ’black tax’ of about six percent.” That means if the Democrat is up by four points in the polls in Virginia, for example, and you subtract six points, “he loses there and in other battleground states that are close.”
For his part, Mr. McCain is correct that the mainstream media has “written me off.” He’s been dismissed as the underdog before. He apparently sees an advantage in this lowered position because he said, “We’ve got them right where we want them.”
People do love an underdog. That scrappy status is what propelled Mr. Obama’s improbable candidacy during the Democratic primary season.
He knows, too, that “It ain’t ovah ’til it’s ovah.’ ” Now, if I could just remember who sang that song.
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