ANDRES: The changing impact of higher education

Voters' choices should be cause for concern to Republicans

By Gary Andres | Friday, October 31, 2008

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OP-ED:

Since modern polling began in the 1940s, surveys have demonstrated educational attainment shapes political behavior. Higher levels of schooling correlate with increased turnout, interest in politics and efforts to persuade others how to vote. It also influences partisan attachments and vote choice.

The interaction of education's impact on politics along with an increase in the number of voters with advanced schooling is changing elections in America.

Surveys during the middle part of the 20th century found those with higher levels of education sided with Republicans, while less-educated Americans aligned with Democrats. But over the last 20 years or so, this pattern has begun to shift. Compared to the 1950-80 period, Republicans have improved their results with less-educated voters and Democrats have gained among those with college degrees. Ron Brownstein agrees and calls this pattern "class inversion." Writing in National Journal recently, he argues: "In the middle decades of the 20th century when economic class served as the principal glue for the two parties' coalitions, Democratic presidential nominees Adlai Stevenson, John F. Kennedy, Lyndon Johnson and Jimmy Carter all ran at least 13 percentage points better among white voters without a college education than among whites with college or post-graduate degrees, according to the University of Michigan's American National Election Studies [ANES], an exhaustive post-election poll."

The graphic below plotting the presidential choice of voters with college degrees, including those with graduate degrees, underscores this point. With the exception of 1964, which was an aberrational election, it shows a broad Republican advantage until about 1992 that shrinks considerably in recent elections.

Looking at the differences between white men and white women with college degrees is particularly striking. Democrats now poll better with higher-educated voters in general compared to 20 years ago. But the most dramatic GOP deficit emerges among women with college degrees. According to National Journal's analysis of presidential exit polls, between 1992 and 2004, white college-educated men still preferred Republicans by an average of about 17 points - less than during the 1950-80 period, but still a significant Republican advantage. During the same period, Democrats actually outperformed Republicans among white college-educated women by about 5 points.

Mr. Brownstein argues the rise of social issues during the last 20 years accounts for these differences. College-educated women may be sympathetic to conservative economic arguments but are more liberal on social issues such as abortion, gay marriage and gun control. These cross-pressures do not exist among men at the same levels, which might account for the divergent patterns. Research by Princeton University political scientist Larry Bartels also suggests higher-income and better-educated voters care more about social issues (making them lean toward Democrats) than lower-income/education voters. Bread-and-butter issues concern voters across class lines, Bartels argues, while upper-class Americans say they care more about social issues as well.

This trend among college-educated voters - and particularly women - creates electoral challenges for Republicans and opportunities for Democrats for two reasons. First, the college-educated proportion of the electorate is growing. College graduates represented about 12 percent of the electorate in the 1950s and 1960s, but grew to 36 percent in 2004. Women with college degrees increased from 11 percent to 34 percent during the same period, according to the ANES. The percent of the electorate represented by women is also rising, increasing from 51 percent in the 1950s to more than 54 percent of the electorate in 2004 - and heading higher based on this year's forecasts.

Republican strategists and elected officials interested in growing their party post-2008 must address these trends, while Democrats will consider ways to exploit them.

Gary Andres is vice chairman of Dutko Worldwide.

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