Biden mum on run for Senate seat

It’s a waiting game these days in Delaware.

More than two months after Republican Rep. Michael N. Castle announced he will run for Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s former Senate seat, state Attorney General Beau Biden has not said whether he will be a candidate for the remaining four years of his father’s term.

Few harbor any doubts the 40-year-old Mr. Biden will run for the open seat. However, the delay in announcing his political intentions, a recent poll showing him trailing Mr. Castle by six percentage points, and a top election analyst’s advice that he should pass up the 2010 special election in what could be a difficult year for Democrats have all raised speculation about why he is taking so long to reveal his plans.

The chance of a Republican pickup and the prospect of a second-generation Biden in the Senate have made the Delaware Senate race unexpectedly one of the more closely watched early contests in the 2010 midterm cycle.

“There’s been a lot of talk in recent days about Democrats retiring and dropping out of certain races, but if Biden opts not to run, that might be the biggest sign of trouble ahead for Democrats,” Aaron Blake wrote in the Hill newspaper last week.

“Should we be reading more into Biden’s reticence?” asked the National Journal’s Hotline.

Mr. Biden has been spending time with his family after returning home earlier in the fall from a tour of duty with the Delaware National Guard in Iraq. He has been giving the same terse response to repeated inquiries about the Senate race: “There will be time to make a decision.”

Veteran election watchers say he can afford to take all the time he wants.

“There probably isn’t much of a need for Biden to establish his campaign early, since he doesn’t need to build name recognition and certainly won’t encounter any trouble raising money,” said Jennifer Duffy, senior elections analyst at the Cook Political Report.

He also is assured of having the full support of the White House; seasoned political advice from his father, who won the seat seven times; and timely campaign appearances by President Obama.

“But, on the very unlikely chance that Biden doesn’t run, it would probably be timing. He was in Iraq for a year and has a young family. It just might not be the right time for him personally,” Ms. Duffy said.

Indeed, her boss, Charlie Cook, in a briefing last week with reporters, said Mr. Biden should wait for a more opportune time to run for the Senate. “Why does he want to run the risk of running against somebody who’s got experience all over him in a Republican year? Why does he want to do this?” Mr. Cook asked rhetorically.

As things stand now, the Senate race is viewed as a pure tossup by most handicappers, though longtime political analyst Stuart Rothenberg put the race in his “lean takeover” column for the Republicans last month. “Given the probability that the broad political environment will favor the GOP, Castle has a very slight edge,” he said.

Democratic Sen. Ted Kaufman, a longtime aide to the senior Mr. Biden, was appointed to the seat in January when his old boss moved over to the White House. Mr. Kaufman pledged at the time not to run in the race to fill out the term.

Mr. Castle, a 70-year-old former governor and moderate who has been elected statewide for more than a quarter of a century, is one of the state’s most popular political leaders, drawing support from Democrats and independents alike. As the state’s sole House member, he won re-election to a ninth term last year with 61 percent of the vote. A voter survey released last week by Public Policy Polling, a Democratic survey firm, showed him leading Mr. Biden by 45 percent to 39 percent.

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