Can ‘Avatar’ equal success of ‘Titanic’?

LOS ANGELES

A colossal budget, visionary technology and a down-to-the-wire workload on a film whose fortunes are a real question mark.

James Cameron has been there before on little ditties called “Terminator 2: Judgment Day” and “Titanic.” In case anyone has forgotten how that worked out for him, “Titanic” stacked up 11 Academy Awards, best picture and director among them, and a record $1.8 billion worldwide at the box office.

This time, Mr. Cameron’s vision is riding on “Avatar,” a science-fiction epic aiming to push the bounds of digital filmmaking and 3-D presentation into the heavens, with a reported price tag well in excess of the $200 million spent to make “Titanic.”

Will audiences come along? Mr. Cameron thinks so.

“It’s hard for me to imagine that, short of some massive marketing debacle, that it’s not going to work for people. I mean, we may not have a kind of slam-dunk opening weekend that settles the whole case. I don’t think the case is going to be settled until week two or maybe week three,” Mr. Cameron said in an interview days after completing “Avatar,” just in time for its worldwide blowout Dec. 18.

“Let’s face it. It wasn’t settled on ‘Titanic’ till week 10. ‘Titanic’ was the number one picture for 16 weeks. I don’t expect that kind of performance out of ‘Avatar.”’

Mr. Cameron will not divulge what he expects out of “Avatar,” wisecracking that “if we announce the sequel, then we hit the number.”

Mr. Cameron’s reputation and a mammoth marketing push by distributor 20th Century Fox virtually guarantee hit status for “Avatar.” Still, in this blockbuster age, there are hits and there are hits. The question is whether “Avatar” can climb to the $300 million or $400 million level of such franchises as “Star Wars,” “The Lord of the Rings” and “Spider-Man.”

Some factors in its favor:

m Science-fiction and fantasy have gone mainstream in a huge way since Mr. Cameron’s last foray in the field.

m Now that cartoon hits have built a fan appetite for digital 3-D films, “Avatar” is Hollywood’s big test for the future of live-action movies in three dimensions. “Avatar” in 3-D will bring in about $4 to $5 a ticket more than the 2-D version.

m Mr. Cameron is a franchise unto himself, a digital-effects trailblazer who always dazzles, even when he doesn’t score a runaway hit (“The Abyss”).

Some factors against it:

m Set in the 22nd century, “Avatar” is not based on a literary work, a comic book, a TV show, a theme-park ride or a toy. Mr. Cameron is asking audiences to turn up for something entirely unfamiliar.

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