Inside the Ring

Missile threats

A new report by the National Air and Space Intelligence Center (NASIC) provides fresh data showing the threat from missiles is growing, at the same time the Obama administration is setting caps on the U.S. missile defense program.

The report, “Ballistic and Cruise Missile Threat,” reveals new details about the growing threat to the United States posed by the missile programs of Russia, China, Iran, North Korea and other nations.

Since the last NASIC report in 2006, North Korea has deployed two new short-range missiles, a solid-fueled Toksa, with a range of 75 miles; and an extended range Scud missile with a range of up to 625 miles.

North Korea has also deployed close to 50 new intermediate-range missiles with a range of more than 2,000 miles, in addition to just under 50 Nodong missiles, with a range of 800 miles, the report states. The Taepodong-2, with a range of 3,400 miles, is listed as “not-yet-deployed.”

The report said two launches of the Taepodong-2 missile, in 2006 and 2009, both ended in failure, although “the April 2009 flight demonstrated a more complete performance.”

The report said testing the Taepodong-2 shows Pyongyang’s “determination to achieve long-range ballistic missile and space launch capabilities.”

Disclosure of the report comes amid reports that North Korea is planning another Taepodong-2 test.

“The Taepodong-2 could be exported to other countries in the future,” the report said.

Iran also is making progress on long-range missile development, with a new intermediate-range missile in the works. The report cited Iran’s April satellite launch of a missile identified as a Safir that the NASIC stated “can serve as a testbed for long-range ballistic missile technologies.”

The report said China has “the most active and diverse ballistic missile development program in the world,” with seven types of short-range missiles, five types of medium-range missiles; four ICBMs, two submarine-launched missiles and two land-attack cruise missiles.

The report identifies for the first time the range of China’s aircraft carrier-killing missile: The modified CSS-5 medium-range missile can travel 900 miles. Three other modifications of the CSS-5 - two nuclear tipped and one with a conventional warhead - also were disclosed for the first time, all with ranges of more than 1,100 miles.

The report stated that China’s nuclear warhead arsenal is expanding significantly, with the number of ICBM warheads capable of threatening the United States expected to grow to “well over 100 in the next 15 years.”

ICBM levels have increased sharply since the Pentagon’s latest annual report to Congress on the Chinese military was published in March. The Pentagon report listed the deployment of less than 10 each for the new hard-to-locate road mobile DF-31 and DF-31A ICBMs.

The NASIC report, released last week, stated that China has now deployed less than 15 each of the DF-31 and DF-31A.

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