Iran tests Obama's diplomatic strategy

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By Jon Ward

President Obama is finding out, as former President George W. Bush did, that when it comes to governing, other people's elections can be a troublesome business.

The tumultuous aftermath of Iran's presidential election more than a week ago has complicated the president's plans to engage Tehran in a quest for a "grand bargain" to stop the Islamic Republic's pursuit of a nuclear weapon.

On Sunday, Iran's government announced that five members of former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani's family have been arrested, suggesting a rift among Iran's theocratic rulers, although state media later said they were released. The government also said at least 10 people were killed and 100 injured in clashes between demonstrators and police.

Domestically, Mr. Obama's massive health care reform effort has run into roadblocks on Capitol Hill. The reason: Lawmakers are worried about voting for legislation that could get them tossed out of office in 2010.

Popular elections also tripped up Mr. Bush when Hamas, a Palestinian militant group that advocates the destruction of Israel and the death of all Jews, beat out the more moderate Fatah Party in 2006. Hamas' control of the Gaza Strip since then has undercut U.S. efforts to deal with Fatah leader Mahmoud Abbas, who remains in control of the West Bank.

For the Obama administration, democracy's spillover effect means its already overloaded agenda is now starting to burst at the seams.

White House press secretary Robert Gibbs showed an awareness of the strain last week week when a reporter went down the list of items piling on top of one another on the domestic front: setbacks on health care reform, a Supreme Court nominee moving toward confirmation hearings and a proposal for the most sweeping financial-regulation changes since the Great Depression.

"North Korea, Iran," Mr. Gibbs said, adding to the list.

"There's always concern that the president - the president always has concerns that we have many problems and that we have to work quickly to deal with them, absolutely," Mr. Gibbs said, but pointed to polling that showed confidence in Mr. Obama's ability to handle the wide range of matters confronting him.

But the unpredictability of elections demonstrates that every commander in chief is forced to spend much of his time dealing with developments he had not expected.