In this situation, a fairly airtight quarantine of North Korea could be needed for an extended period. In principle, such a quarantine should be feasible, but it will take effort to set up, and some of that effort should happen before the actual crisis.
An examination of trade data suggests that North Korea’s shipping with the outside world probably involves fewer than a few dozen ships of cargo a week. In principle, it is certainly possible for a U.S.-led coalition to stop all such vessels, if one is willing to employ force to destroy engines or otherwise disable the ships. It may even be possible, if a major effort is organized, to inspect each of these ships for illicit cargo.
The real hard part of this mission is probably not the military dimension. North Korea has a reasonably long coastline - about 1550 miles. However, reconnaissance aircraft operating off South Korean territory or American aircraft carriers typically can spot vessels dozens if not hundreds of miles away. So continuously maintaining a half-dozen aircraft “orbits” on each side of the country, with fighter escort to protect the reconnaissance planes and fire, if necessary, on any North Korean ships, certainly could be maintained indefinitely.
Planning is required to do this right, but it should be doable. Remember, we are presuming a scenario in which it is feared that North Korea is about to sell nuclear material to a group that might use it against the United States, so a serious U.S.-led response would be expected.
Rather, the hard part of this mission would be the need for international coordination, especially with China. For starters, it would be of paramount importance, of course, not to sink any Chinese ships trying to trade with North Korea.
Then it would be necessary to ask for China’s help - and provide any American assistance that might be needed - in better securing the land border between China and North Korea. All sides would have to think through rules of engagement as well as avoid shooting at North Korean assets and hurting innocent people, if possible, but to be sure of stopping nuclear materials from getting beyond North Korean territory if necessary.
None of this is fun to think about. However, North Korea has just made it easier to talk about, diplomatically and strategically, with other key states - and we probably should avail ourselves of the opportunity.
Michael O’Hanlon is senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.
By Rand Paul
Obama acts as though we no longer have a Constitution
