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He mentioned the fact that there are more independent voters in each of the city’s eight wards — city rolls list 73,178 independents versus just 29,728 Republicans — and that thousands of voters wrote in Mr. Fenty’s name for mayor on their November ballots.

Nearly 28,000 D.C. voters wrote in a name, with most almost certainly being for Mr. Fenty, on whose behalf a write-in campaign was launched.

“Republicans are going to knock on the doors of independents,” he said, adding that the D.C. GOP also has the “advantage of Paul Craney.”

“He is sharp enough and politically savvy enough to pull in a win,” Mr. Sloan said.