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A TV ad by Wisconsin Republican House contender Sean Duffy features a man in an orange hardhat and safety vest getting flung off a rolling log into a pond. “Our working folks have been tossed aside,” Mr. Duffy says in the ad.

One ray of hope for Democrats is that 28 percent of working-class whites in the AP-GfK Poll say they may still switch candidates. Republicans say it’s too late.

Obama and Democrats have had almost two years to try to get things back on track,” said GOP pollster David Winston.

The AP-GfK Poll was conducted Sept. 8-13 by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Corporate Communications and involved landline and cell phone interviews with 1,000 randomly chosen adults. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4.2 percentage points. Included were interviews with 416 whites without college degrees, for whom the error margin is plus or minus 6.6 points.

AP Polling Director Trevor Tompson, Deputy Polling Director Jennifer Agiesta and News Survey Specialist Dennis Junius contributed to this report.