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Floyd Ciruli, a Colorado independent pollster, attributes Mr. Obama’s support to the relatively late arrival of the recession there. “Frankly, we thought up to a year ago that we got out of it, but in fact we got into it late, and it looks like we’re going to stay in it late,” Mr. Ciruli said. “We’re starting to feel government cuts, so we’re laying off schoolteachers and other state employees.” Helping Mr. Obama in Colorado is the fact that Democrats enjoy an 8-point registration advantage (43 percent-35 percent) over Republicans.

Mr. Obama’s status in Michigan is also buoyed by Democrats’ registration advantage (41 percent-28 percent). Although unemployment among non-college-educated whites is among the highest in the nation, the president’s support among Democrats (78 percent) has not hemorrhaged as in Nevada. Still, a Public Policy Polling report in March concluded that Mr. Obama’s 47 percent approval rating made him “vulnerable in Michigan for sure.”

Non-college-educated whites in swing states have clearly expressed their skepticism about the president’s policies. Unless more of them get jobs by next year they might help kick Mr. Obama out of his.

Mark Stricherz is the author of “Why the Democrats Are Blue: Secular Liberalism and the Decline of the People’s Party” (Encounter Books).