War-weary families looking to leave Afghanistan before end of 2014

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KABUL, AfghanistanAsadullah Ramin has lost all hope in his homeland – he’s so worried about what will happen when U.S. and international troops leave that he is ready to pay a smuggler to whisk his family out of Afghanistan.

It would cost the 50-year-old, self-employed electronics engineer tens of thousands of dollars to leave his middle-class life in the Afghan capital and start over with his wife and their three daughters.

He has done OK in recent years, even getting contracts from the foreign forces, and he has warm memories of Kabul from his teens  before Soviet forces invaded the nation.

But he wouldn’t hesitate for a moment. He has already paid to have his two sons smuggled to a European country he won’t disclose.

“If I could go in the next hour, I would leave everything – the house, my shop,” Mr. Ramin said, tears welling in his eyes as he spoke in his dusty workshop.

“I have no hope, no hope,” he said, opening his palms as if pleading to be understood.

The United States and its allies have tried to reassure Afghans that they are not abandoning the country when international combat troops leave by the end of 2014.

Donor nations have pledged billions to bankroll Afghan security forces and billions more in development aid. Country after country has signed a long-term partnership pact with Kabul.

But the promises have done little to buoy the hopes of Afghans who are in despair about the future of their nation.

Lack of confidence

Among Afghans throughout the country interviewed by the Associated Press, the worry is pervasive.

Many are deeply skeptical that Afghan police and security forces, which the U.S.-led coalition has spent years trying to build, will be able to fight insurgents and militants without American and NATO fighting alongside.

Worse-case scenarios that some fear: The Afghan forces could splinter along ethnic lines and prompt civil war, the nation could plunge into a deep recession, or the Kabul government – beset with corruption and still fragile despite efforts to establish its authority – could remain too weak to hold off a Taliban takeover.

Just a 45-minute drive south of Kabul, residents of Wardak province directly feel the tenuousness. The province is a battleground for Afghan and coalition forces trying to quash hotbeds of Taliban militants.

Residents quickly warn visitors that it’s dangerous just to go past a checkpoint a half-mile outside the provincial capital, Maidan Shahr.

“We don’t know if the government has been successful or not,” said Mohammad Ashaq, 17, chatting inside a tiny pharmacy in the city. “Most people think that after 2014, the government will not exist.”

Hanging over the fear is a sense that history could repeat itself.

Afghans felt abandoned by the U.S. after 1989, when the Soviet army withdrew from the country. U.S. support to mujahedeen fighters battling the Soviets dried up quickly, and Afghanistan sank into civil war as militias and warlords clashed for power and, in the process, devastated the capital Kabul.

That was followed by the rise of the Taliban and years of rule under the repressive regime.

In one sign of the lack of confidence, the number of Afghan asylum seekers in 44 industrialized countries went up 34 percent in 2011 over the previous year, according to the latest figures issued by the U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees.

In 2011, a total of 35,700 Afghans sought asylum, compared with 26,000 the previous year.

Another ominous sign: the real estate market in Kabul.

Donors and pledges

Broker Mir Ahmad Shah said this is the worst of his seven years selling properties in the capital. No one wants to buy.

A parcel of land that went for $100,000 last year now is priced as low as $60,000; but even at that cut-rate price buyers aren’t tempted.

It’s in part because of increased security concerns in the past year, but it’s “especially because of the announcement about the coalition leaving,” Mr. Shah said.

“I’m not hopeful for the future and it’s not just me,” he said, waving his hand toward small shops across the street where a vendor was selling live chickens. “The shopkeepers, the businessmen – they are all [feeling] hopeless.”

One of his listings is the house of a man moving to Canada, he added.

The Americans insist that the pledges of international support going forward will prevent the worst from happening.

The pledges make the possibility of another civil war or deep recession “unlikely scenarios,” according to Ryan Crocker, who just stepped down as U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan.

At a NATO summit in May in Chicago, members agreed to help the Afghan government bankroll its security forces after 2014.

Earlier this month in Tokyo, the international community pledged $16 billion in aid – at least through 2015 – to further assist rebuilding.

“We are not even imagining abandoning Afghanistan,” Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said during a stop in Kabul en route to the Tokyo gathering.

She announced that Afghanistan is the newest “major non-NATO ally” – a statement of political support for the country’s long-term stability and close defense cooperation.

Afghan, U.S. and coalition officials believe Afghan forces are becoming more capable day by day. They boast that while insurgents remain a threat, they have been forced out of population centers.

Seventy-five percent of the Afghan population lives in areas where security is being transferred to Afghan forces, they said.

‘Open for business’

The Afghan army and police force are trying to cope with low levels of literacy, corruption within their ranks and lack of equipment and experience, but are showing themselves to be increasingly capable on the battlefield – and there are still two years to go, Marine Corps Gen. John Allen, the top commander of U.S. and NATO forces in Afghanistan, told Associated Press in a recent interview.

“It’s gaining experience. It’s gaining leadership,” Gen. Allen said of the national army.

Still, civilians increasingly are caught in the middle of the fight against insurgents.

Last year was the deadliest on record for civilians in the Afghan war, with 3,021 killed as insurgents stepped up suicide attacks and roadside bombs, according to the U.N.

In the south, where the Taliban have strongest roots, the governor of Helmand province praises the security gains.

In 2008, provincial capital Lashkar Gah was surrounded by militants and the Taliban controlled a number of districts. There was only one brigade of the Afghan army in the province, and the police forces were beset by drug addiction, Gov. Gulab Mangal told Pentagon reporters recently.

But after years of operations by coalition and Afghan forces, insurgents have been pushed back. Today, 80 percent of the Helmand police are trained and equipped, he said, declaring Helmand is “open for business.’

Copyright 2014 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

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