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Fantasy Football: An expert and a journalist walk into a mock draft …
Question of the Day
Round 5: BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Bengals RB
The player I wanted, Ahmad Bradshaw, went with the pick before me, but I was fine selecting BG-E. His career best is only 1,008 yards (in 2010), but he managed to score 24 TDs in New England the past two seasons for a team that doesn’t like to run. Cincinnati likes to run.
Jonathan’s take: I think Green-Ellis is actually the superior pick over Bradshaw, who is the more talented runner.
Don’t be scared by The Lawfirm’s 3.7 yards-per-carry from 2011. A huge portion of his touches in New England were in short-yardage situations. He’s likely to be closer to 4.3 or 4.4 YPC this year, and he’ll still get plenty of goal line carries
Round 6: Shonn Greene, Jets RB
The Jets learned their lesson last year in trying to rely on the passing game. And if you think Tim Tebow’s presence hurts a RB, ask Willis McGahee, whom I bypassed to select Greene. With QB and WR covered, RB depth was of utmost importance at this point, and not many primary ball carriers were left.
Jonathan’s take: In rounds five and six, Matt did an awesome job of acquiring high-volume running backs. Unlike wide receivers, the vast majority of running backs’ fantasy points are the result of workload over efficiency, so it’s‘ wise to target running backs who figure to be their team’s workhorse. With little competition in New York, Greene is one of those guys.
Round 7: Jermichael Finley, Packers TE
I was hoping Vernon Davis would fall to me, but he went two picks previous. So I reached a bit (based on rankings) to select Finley. He has yet to live up to his potential, but when all else fails, draft a player that catches passes (when he’s not dropping them) from the top fantasy quarterback.
Jonathan’s take: Finley garnered 91 targets in 2011. With Donald Driver being phased out of the offense, that number should hit triple digits. Also, Finley will never approach the same 17.9 percent drop rate he posted last year. For stat geeks like me, that means he is likely to regress toward the mean — a good thing for his fantasy outlook.
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