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Kyrgyz government collapses, increasing political instability
Question of the Day
“I think its unlikely that there will be new elections, simply because the national budget will not allow for it,” said Ms. Doolotkeldieva. “We have been having elections almost every year, and this is unbearable for a very modest national budget.”
Many expect the various parties to try to form a new coalition, how they will align themselves is unclear.
Ms. Doolotkeldieva said that President Almazbek Atambayev, who will play a key role in selecting a new prime minister, would be happy to see the ouster of Mr. Babanov, who is seen as having gained his post by having helped Mr. Atambayev win last year’s parliamentary elections.
Analysts say that efforts to unify the heavily divided north and south of the country could see the president appoint Kamchybek Tashiev, a longtime rival and head of the nationalistic Ata-Jurt party. Mr. Tashiev enjoys considerable support in the south, and could help the central government in Bishkek regain control of the region.
Still, others say that reformist parties would be unable to work with Ata-Jurt, which favors a return to the authoritarian presidential model that existed before Mr. Bakiyev’s overthrow in 2010 ushered in a new parliamentary government.
“I would be surprised if they made Tashiev prime minister because Ata-Jurt stands for something completely different than the reformist parties,” said Lilit Gevorgyan of the economic analysis firm IHS Global Insight in London. “Voters may question their choice to give this very important post to the opponents. I don’t think they would bring on someone who is openly against the parliamentary democracy.”
Reformist parties likely will be forced to muddle along in a minority government, “which will mean more instability because they will have to win the support of other parties to push each piece of important legislation through,” Ms. Gevorgyan said. “But that’s the nature of a parliamentary democracy where you have to learn to reach consensus with your opponents rather than trying to oppress them.”
Observers will be watching to see if Kyrgyz politicians can do just that.
“Kyrgyzstan has been portrayed in neighboring Kazakhstan as a weird, crazy country which experiments with its own system ” Ms. Doolotkeldieva said. “But the people of Tajikistan and Kazakhstan are envious of our experiments because these countries have stability, but that stability is more like stagnation. New leadership would mean more instability, but also more opportunities for ordinary people and more civil rights.”
• This article is based in part on wire service reports.
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