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Boehner seen as staying speaker despite ‘cliff’ rebellion

- Associated Press - Sunday, December 23, 2012

Rep. John A. Boehner is a bloodied House speaker after the startling setback that his own fractious Republican troops dealt him in their "fiscal cliff" struggle against President Obama.

There's plenty of internal grumbling about the Ohio Republican, especially among conservatives, and lots of buzzing about whether his leadership post is in jeopardy. But it's uncertain whether any other House Republican has the broad appeal to seize the job from Mr. Boehner or whether his embarrassing inability to pass his own bill preventing tax increases on everyone but millionaires is enough to topple him.

"No one will be challenging John Boehner as speaker," predicted John Feehery, a consultant and former aide to House GOP leaders. "No one else can right now do the job of bringing everyone together" and unifying House Republicans.

The morning after he yanked the tax-cutting bill from the House floor to prevent certain defeat, Mr. Boehner told reporters he wasn't worried about losing his job when the new Congress convenes Jan. 3.

"They weren't taking that out on me," he said Friday of rank-and-file GOP lawmakers, who despite pleading from Mr. Boehner and his lieutenants were shy of providing the 217 votes needed for passage. "They were dealing with the perception that somebody might accuse them of raising taxes."

That "somebody" was a number of outside conservative groups such as the Club for Growth and Heritage Action for America, which openly pressured lawmakers to reject Mr. Boehner's bill. Such organizations often oppose GOP lawmakers they consider too moderate and have been headaches for Mr. Boehner in the past.

This time, his retreat on the tax measure was an unmistakable blow to the clout of the 22-year House veteran known for an amiable style, a willingness to make deals and a perpetual tan.

Congressional leaders amass power partly by their ability to command votes, especially in showdowns. His failure to do so Thursday stands to weaken his muscle with Mr. Obama and among House Republicans.

"It's very hard for him to negotiate now," said Sarah Binder, a George Washington University political scientist, adding that it's premature to judge if Mr. Boehner's hold on the speakership is in peril. "No one can trust him, because it's very hard for him to produce votes."

She said the loss weakens his ability to summon support in the future because "you know the last time he came to you like this, others didn't step in line."

Mr. Boehner, 63, faces unvarnished hostility from some conservatives.

"We clearly can't have a speaker operate well outside" what Republicans want to do, said Rep. Tim Huelskamp, Kansas Republican, who ran unopposed for a second term last month.

Mr. Huelskamp is one of four GOP lawmakers who lost prized committee assignments after previous clashes with party leaders. That punishment was an anomaly for Mr. Boehner, who is known more for friendly persuasion than arm-twisting.

He said Mr. Boehner's job would depend on whether the speaker is "willing to sit and listen to Republicans first, or march off" and negotiate with Mr. Obama.

Conservative Rep. Steve King, Iowa Republican, said one of the tea party's lasting effects would be if Mr. Boehner struggled to retain his speakership owing to the fight over the fiscal cliff, which is the combination of tax increases and spending cuts that start in early January without a bipartisan deal to avert them.

"If there's a major defeat delivered here, it could make it tough on him," Mr. King said. "He's in a tough spot."

Defenders say Mr. Boehner has been dealt a difficult hand. They say that in nearly two years as speaker, he's been field general over an unruly GOP majority confronting a Democratic president and Senate, steering them to the best outcomes possible.

House Republicans won some spending cuts early on. But they were faulted by the public for nearly causing a federal default in a 2011 fight over extending the government's debt limit, and lost a later battle over renewing a payroll-tax cut.

This year, they've suffered in the polls for resisting the extension of wide-ranging tax cuts unless the wealthiest earners were included, which Mr. Obama opposes. They saw their House majority whittled by eight seats in last month's elections, but still hold a comfortable majority.

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