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A quick ‘fiscal cliff’ deal could happen …
If GOP lets Democrats supply votes to pass bill
Question of the Day
In case the public isn’t frustrated enough by Congress’ failure to resolve the “fiscal cliff,” consider this: Lawmakers probably could enact a compromise quickly and easily if Republican leaders let Democrats provide most of the votes.
That would give Democrats a bigger voice in the bargain, of course, which the Republican-led House is loath to do. That’s why about 10 percent of the House’s members — staunch anti-tax conservatives — were able to thwart Speaker John A. Boehner’s bid to pass a narrowly crafted bill that might have strengthened his bargaining hand.
By trying to pass his plan with GOP votes alone, Mr. Boehner could afford to lose only two dozen of the 241 House Republicans. His private headcount found nearly twice that many defectors, party insiders say, forcing Mr. Boehner to give up without seeking a formal vote. The miscalculation left negotiations in disarray as the Dec. 31 deadline nears.
The House’s 192 Democrats essentially sat on the sidelines, bit players in last week’s House drama.
House speakers traditionally advance major legislation only if most of their party’s members support it. It’s called the “majority of the majority” rule of thumb. But past speakers, including Democrat Nancy Pelosi and Republican Dennis Hastert, have ignored the rule at times.
Some Democrats are now calling on Mr. Boehner to do the same to avert the big tax hikes and spending cuts scheduled to take effect in the new year.
A new coalition?
Veterans in both parties say many House Democrats likely would join a sufficient number of Republicans — though not necessarily a majority — to pass a compromise along the lines of the one that Mr. Boehner and President Obama seemed to be nearing last week before Mr. Boehner struck out on his own. Such a compromise plan might preserve George W. Bush-era tax cuts for all couples making less than $400,000 or so a year. It also could include an outline for future spending cuts and changes to keep the Alternative Minimum Tax from hitting millions of new taxpayers.
While Mr. Obama did not explicitly embrace such a plan, he and Mr. Boehner appeared to be edging toward some variation of it. But Mr. Boehner abruptly launched his separate proposal — he dubbed it “Plan B” — which the conservatives’ revolt killed late Thursday.
Mr. Boehner’s plan would have spared anyone making less than $1 million a year from a tax rate hike in 2013. At least 40 House Republicans refused to back any tax rate increase at all, lawmakers said, thus dooming the plan.
However, perhaps as many as 200 House Republicans apparently were willing to let tax cuts expire for a fraction of the wealthiest households. That’s a significant break from the party’s no-tax-hikes-ever orthodoxy.
GOP leaders note that virtually everyone’s taxes will rise Jan. 1 without congressional action. They say sparing 98 percent or 99 percent of Americans is the best political alternative, given Mr. Obama’s negotiating strength.
It’s not known how many House Republicans would vote to avert the fiscal cliff by supporting a tax-and-spending plan closer to Mr. Obama’s liking. In his re-election campaign, the president called for letting the Bush-era tax cuts expire on incomes of more than $250,000 for couples and $200,000 for individuals. In later negotiations with Mr. Boehner, Mr. Obama said he could accept a $400,000 threshold if Republicans agreed to other tax and spending provisions.
Rare but possible
An Obama-backed deal presumably would draw the overwhelming support of House and Senate Democrats. But even if every House Democrat backed it, it would need another 25 votes in that chamber. Some Democrats say Mr. Boehner should let a few dozen willing Republicans provide those votes by putting an Obama-blessed bill on the floor.
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