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Change historic patterns as 5-year sell-off continues
Question of the Day
NEW YORK — Andrew Neitlich is the last person you’d expect to be rattled by the stock market.
He once worked as a financial analyst picking stocks for a mutual fund. He has huddled with dozens of CEOs in his current career as an executive coach. During the dot-com crash 12 years ago, he kept his wits and did not sell.
But he’s selling now.
“You have to trust your government. You have to trust other governments. You have to trust Wall Street,” says Mr. Neitlich, 47. “And I don’t trust any of these.”
Defying decades of investment history, ordinary Americans are selling stocks for a fifth year in a row. The selling has not let up despite unprecedented measures by the Federal Reserve to persuade people to buy and the come-hither allure of a levitating market. Stock prices have doubled from March 2009, their low point in the Great Recession.
It’s the first time ordinary folks have sold during a sustained bull market since relevant records were first kept during World War II, an examination by The Associated Press has found. The AP analyzed money flowing into and out of stock funds of all kinds, including relatively new exchange-traded funds, which investors like because of their low fees.
“People don’t trust the market any more,” says financial historian Charles R. Geisst of Manhattan College. He says a “crisis of confidence” similar to one after the crash of 1929 will keep people away from stocks for a generation or more.
The implications for the economy and living standards are unclear but potentially big. If the pullback continues, some experts say, it could lead to lower spending by companies, slower U.S. economic growth and perhaps lower gains for those who remain in the market.
Since they started selling in April 2007, eight months before the start of the Great Recession, individual investors have pulled at least $380 billion from U.S. stock funds, a category that includes both mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, according to estimates by the AP. That is the equivalent of all the money they put into the market in the previous five years.
Selling during both a downturn and a recovery is unusual because Americans almost always buy more than they sell during both.
Since World War II, nine recessions besides the Great Recession have been followed by recoveries lasting at least three years. According to data from the Investment Company Institute, a trade group representing investment funds, individual investors sold during and after only one of those previous downturns — the one from November 1973 through March 1975. Back then, a scary stock drop around the start of the recovery’s third year, 1977, gave people ample reason to get out of the market.
The unusual pullback this time has spread to other big investors — public and private pension funds, investment brokerages and state and local governments. Those groups have sold a total of $861 billion more than they have bought since April 2007, according to the Federal Reserve.
Even foreigners, big purchasers in recent years, are selling now — $16 billion in the 12 months through September.
As these groups have sold, much of the stock buying has fallen to companies. They’ve bought $656 billion more than they have sold since April 2007. Companies are mostly buying their own stock.
On Wall Street, the investor revolt has largely been dismissed as temporary. But doubts are creeping in.
By Andrew P. Napolitano
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