BRUSSELS — The 17-nation eurozone economy will suffer a modest recession this year despite recent signs of stabilization, particularly in financial markets, the European Union’s executive branch said Thursday.
That would be the fifth straight year of recession in Greece, which earlier this week clinched its second massive bailout package in less than two years.
In its last forecast in November, the Commission predicted a 0.5 percent expansion across the eurozone economy following last year’s 1.4 percent growth. The difference this time is that it now expects the economies of Belgium, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, the Netherlands and Slovenia to contract in 2012, not just Greece and Portugal.
The overall decline is limited by resilient activity in Germany and France, the eurozone’s two-largest economies. Growth in Germany is penciled in at 0.6 percent while France is forecast to grow by 0.4 percent.
“Although growth has stalled, we are seeing signs of stabilisation in the European economy,” said Olli Rehn, European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs. “Economic sentiment is still at low levels, but stress in financial markets is easing.”
He said the forecast was based on the assumption that uncertainty created by the debt crisis “will gradually fade away.”
Sony Kapoor, managing director of economic think-tank Re-Define, urged Europe not to get complacent over its handling of the debt crisis.
“The sharply deteriorating economic forecasts underscore why despite the lull arising from a quietening of the acute phase of the crisis, EU policy makers must not be allowed to procrastinate and become complacent, a pattern that has characterized EU decision-making from the start of the crisis,” Kapoor said.
Last November, financial markets were struck by fears that Europe’s debt crisis would not be confined to the relatively small economies of Greece, Ireland and Portugal. Worries grew that Spain and Italy could get swamped by their debt loads, too. Both countries now have new governments to enact sweeping austerity measures.
The more benign atmosphere in financial markets has also been helped by the European Central Bank’s offering of super-cheap long-term loans to banks and the decision of the 17 euro countries to tie their economies closer together.
Though austerity measures are the main pillar in Europe’s strategy to fight the debt crisis, they are clearly hurting the economy in the short-term — Spain and Italy are expected to sink into recession this year as their governments cut debt aggressively.
Italy, which is the eurozone’s third-largest economy and has a debt mountain of around €1.9 trillion ($2.5 trillion), is predicted to contract by 1.3 percent this year, in contrast to the 0.3 percent growth predicted in November.
And Spain is expected to contract 1 percent in 2012, against the 0.7 percent growth predicted in the fall. The Commission warned that if the Spanish government enacts further budget cuts in an effort to meet its 2012 targets, its economy will likely shrink even more.
Rehn dodged questions on whether the Commission would be willing to give Spain more time to cuts its deficits considering the country’s worsened economic situation. Under current commitments to the EU, Spain has to cut its deficit to 4.4 percent of GDP for 2012. But the new government, facing another recession, has hinted it wants the EU to lower the target a bit.