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Tornado season looms, but forecasting a challenge
WASHINGTON (AP) - Tornado season is starting, but don’t ask meteorologists how bad it will be this spring and summer.
They don’t know. They’re having a hard enough time getting a fix on the likely path of storms expected in the next 48 hours, from the Ohio Valley to the Southeast coast.
The very nature of tornadoes makes them the wildcard of weather disasters. It’s just hard to figure when and where they’ll appear.
On Wednesday night, one hit Rome, Ga., the National Weather Service said, with winds of 95 mph, leaving a 3-mile swath of destruction.
It’s not the first one of the year. In January two people were killed by separate twisters in Alabama. Preliminary reports showed 95 tornadoes struck last month, compared with 16 in January 2011, a particularly stormy year.
The season usually starts in March and then ramps up for the next couple of months, but forecasting a seasonal outlook is even more imprecise than predicting hurricane seasons. Tornadoes are too small and too short-lived. They don’t develop like blizzards and hurricanes, which are easier to project.
They pop in and pop out. The storms that give them birth may last only a few hours. Hurricanes and blizzards are lumbering beasts that spend days moving across the satellite maps. When a hurricane approaches, coastlines get days to evacuate. With a tornado, if the weather service can let people know 20 minutes in advance, it’s considered a victory.
The deadly Joplin, Mo., tornado “wasn’t violent until just about the time it got to the hospital,” said Harold Brooks, a research scientist at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's National Severe Storms Laboratory, in Norman, Okla. “Even when you’re in the field, there are still times when you’re surprised by the intensity of the event and how quickly it started.”
The federal storm center says 158 died in that storm; local officials count 161.
If a forecast for a hurricane or blizzard is off by a mile, it’s still bad weather. But a mile difference means no damage in a tornado, Brooks said: “It’s so much finer in time and space on the tornado, it does make it a harder problem.”
It takes a piece of debris only a few seconds to fly around an entire tornado; it takes hours to circle a hurricane. Yet tornadoes, though smaller, can have stronger winds. Since 1950, there have been 58 tornadoes in the United States with winds exceeding 200 mph; six last year alone. Only three hurricanes have made U.S. landfall with winds more than 155 mph.
And forecasters are telling the Southeast and Midwest to get ready again.
“It looks like this week we’re moving into a slightly more active dynamic pattern,” said warning meteorologist Greg Carbin at the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction Center, also in Norman, Okla.
The percolating Ohio Valley/Southeastern storm is proof of how hard meteorologists have it. On Tuesday evening, Carbin said, “We’re kind of expecting it to be a fairly significant event” and the storm center’s website had a small red swath for potential severe storms with tornadoes.
By Wednesday afternoon, the storm prediction center massively expanded its Thursday watch area to include 14 states from Florida to Indiana. By Thursday afternoon, it was down to mostly Kentucky and Tennessee with parts of neighboring states.
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