VIENNA, Austria — The United States and its European allies agree that Iran might be seeking the capacity to make atomic arms as it forges ahead with its nuclear program. They differ on whether Iran is actively working to build a bomb.
Britain, France and Germany disagree, even though their officials are keen to show that they and the United States speak with one voice on the concerns that Iran may want to produce nuclear arms.
Such divergence could mean trouble for the West’s strategy to keep Iran nuclear weapons-free.
The United States and, more forcefully, Israel have warned that armed attack is possible if Iran is seen to be actively working on a bomb. But the lack of consensus among allies could complicate making any such assessment.
A revised report last year remains classified. In outlining its findings to Congress last year, National Intelligence Director James Clapper avoided any suggestion that Washington now thinks it erred in its 2007 assessment.
Instead he focused on Iran’s expanding uranium enrichment and other programs monitored by the International Atomic Energy Agency as key concerns. Mr. Clapper said it is “technically feasible” but “practically not likely” that Tehran could produce a nuclear weapon in one or two years if its leaders decide to build one.
IAEA challenges U.S. view
Recent reports by the IAEA, the U.N. nuclear agency, explicitly challenge the U.S. view that Iran has stopped weapons development work. They say that some such activities “continued after 2003 and that some may still be ongoing.”
The IAEA has not said what suspect work was conducted when.
In its most recent report last week, the agency repeated suspicions Iran may have: conducted high-explosives testing to set off a nuclear charge; worked on computer modeling of a core of a nuclear warhead; prepared for a nuclear weapons test; or worked on development of a nuclear payload for a missile that could reach Israel.
Israel is the most public in backing the view that weapons work is continuing in Iran, as it seeks to energize international public resolve to counter Tehran’s nuclear drive and possibly pave the ground for an armed strike.
Former Mossad chief Danny Yatom told the Associated Press that the Americans have privately acknowledged that their 2007 assessment was wrong.
“The Iranians have never stopped their efforts to achieve military nuclear capability,” he said.