- Associated Press - Thursday, January 12, 2012

SEOUL (AP) — At first glance, it seems like business as usual: North Korea issues an indignant statement taking aim at the United States over a proposal to donate food in return for nuclear disarmament.

But between the lines are glimmers of conciliation. In its diatribe this week questioning Washington’s generosity and earnestness, North Korea suggests it remains open to suspending a uranium enrichment program if it can get the food it wants.

Deciphering North Korea’s intentions is notoriously difficult, and has been made even more so since the death of longtime ruler Kim Jong-il and the subsequent installation of his young, inexperienced son, Kim Jong-un, at the top.

But how it handles talks with Washington over its food crisis and a decades-old standoff over its nuclear weapons program will provide the strongest clues yet about how the country will behave as it extends the Kim dynasty into a third generation — whether it will lean toward provocation or reconciliation and how tightly it will cling to its nuclear program.

North Korea’s neighbors and Washington are watching to see whether Kim Jong-un can consolidate power over a nation that proudly trumpets its efforts to build nuclear weapons and has a history of aggression against its southern neighbor and rival. There are fears that North Korea could seek to build Kim Jong-un’s credentials, and generate a sense of national unity by conducting a missile or nuclear test or staging an attack on South Korea.

Signs so far are that Pyongyang is striving for continuity and maintaining the elder Kim’s policies. That has good and bad implications for policymakers in Washington and Seoul.

On one hand, Kim Jong-il’s marquee achievement is the North’s nuclear program, seen as crucial to the survival of an authoritarian government that struggles to feed its people. Pyongyang conducted nuclear tests in 2006 and 2009 and has developed missiles with the potential to attack its neighbors and potentially reach the United States.

Zhang Liangui, a Korea specialist and professor at a Chinese Communist Party training academy, told the Global Times newspaper that the North sees its nuclear program as part of Kim Jong-il’s legacy, an indication that it would be impossible for Pyongyang to abandon it — at least under the present leadership.

But on the plus side, Wednesday’s statement from an unidentified Foreign Ministry spokesman in Pyongyang suggests it is open to pursuing an apparent deal with the United States that was in the making before Kim died and could be portrayed as a diplomatic victory for the North.

The Associated Press reported in mid-December that the United States was poised to announce a significant donation of food aid to North Korea. That would have been followed within days by an agreement to suspend North Korea’s uranium enrichment program, according to a broad outline of the emerging agreement made known to the AP by people close to the negotiations.

Worries about North Korea’s nuclear capability took on renewed urgency in November 2010 when the country disclosed a uranium enrichment facility that could give it a second route to manufacture nuclear weapons, in addition to its existing plutonium-based program. At low levels, uranium can be used in power reactors, but at higher levels it can be used in nuclear bombs.

In its statement this week, the North accused Washington of changing the amount and kind of aid it was offering to send, and voiced doubt over U.S. intentions, but concluded: “We will watch if the U.S. truly wants to build confidence.”

“For those in the U.S. government seeking to re-engage with the North Koreans … this may provide the clearest indicator yet that there is more continuity than change in the early post-Kim Jong-il period,” said John Park, an expert on North Korea at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.

In North Korea’s New Year’s editorial, which provides a major signal of its policy priorities, Pyongyang appeared to strike a conciliatory tone. The editorial was notable for what it left out: the usual glorification of its nuclear ambitions and harsh criticism of the United States.

While emphasizing strength, unity and the continuation of Kim Jong-il’s “military-first” policy under his son, it also acknowledged that “the food problem is a burning issue.”

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