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In keeping with the disparity between the capital and the rest of the country, Muscovites are far more likely to see election fraud as a serious problem: 56 percent compared with 37 percent elsewhere.

Mr. Guskov, the 21-year-old Moscow student, expressed frustration over what he sees as one-man rule.

“He is still a czar, and Russia is the kind of country where a lot depends on a single person,” Mr. Guskov said. “But we as a people are trying to do something, so we go to protests and demonstrate our discontent.”

A major factor behind the divergence between Moscow and the rest of Russia is that about half of those surveyed live in small towns and rural areas, where most people still get their news from the Kremlin-controlled national television networks.

Half of the respondents outside the capital said they do not use the Internet, compared with only 10 percent in Moscow. Without access to the Internet, they have not seen the flood of videos purporting to show blatant vote rigging or read about alleged corruption in political and business circles close to Mr. Putin.

Without the Internet, many Russians are unlikely to know much about Alexei Navalny, a charismatic corruption fighter and blogger who is a leader of the anti-Putin protest movement. In Moscow, only 15 percent said they had no opinion of Mr. Navalny, compared with 46 percent in the rest of the country.

This may change, however, as the number of Internet users rises steadily. The Public Opinion Foundation said 38 percent of Russians now use the Internet daily, up from 22 percent just two years ago.

Residents of Moscow also differ from the rest of their countrymen with their far more pessimistic view of Russia’s oil-based economy, perhaps because they are more aware of the challenges ahead.

To consolidate his base ahead of the election, Mr. Putin promised higher wages and benefits to soldiers, police, doctors and teachers. He pledged to pump billions of dollars into ailing industrial plants and the military.

But economists warn that the additional spending is unsustainable if oil prices remain low. Russia is able to balance its budget if the Urals blend of oil stays above $115, but it is currently trading at closer to $90.

Sergei Mikheyev, an analyst with the Center for Political Technologies, said the economic troubles would have to be lasting and deep to drive people in the region out onto the streets.

“To make the regions rise up in a revolt, the oil price will need to take a dramatic toll on living standards; for example, by making millions of people jobless,” he said.

Mr. Petrov, the Carnegie scholar, is more pessimistic. He points to substantial increases in the cost of heating and electricity that will go into effect in July and begin to bite once the weather turns cold, coupled with unpopular new taxes and education reforms going into effect in September.

“We’ve witnessed a big wave of political protests, with Moscow as the leader, in big cities,” Mr. Petrov said. “I don’t think this political protest will go down to small towns, but in the fall there will be socio-economic protests, and socio-economic protests across the country combined with political protests in the big cities will create a deadly mix.”

The poll was conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs and Corporate Communications from May 25 to June 10 and was based on in-person interviews with 1,675 randomly selected adults nationwide. The results have a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

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