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Uzbek strongman’s pledge of privatization draws doubts

- - Tuesday, June 12, 2012

BISHKEK, KYRGYZSTAN — Uzbekistan's announcement that it will privatize key state-owned assets has evoked skepticism about the former Soviet republic's commitment to economic reform.

Observers note that the Central Asian nation has a history of harassing entrepreneurs and investors, while much of the country's wealth is held by a cadre of oligarchs close to the longtime president.

"I think the idea that at last, finally, there's going to be a great liberalization of the economy would be nonsense," said Craig Murray, former British ambassador to Uzbekistan. "[The government] mindset is a cross between a Soviet [model] and a gangster family."

Uzbek's government - which has been headed by President Islam Karimov since the country's independence in 1991 - announced last month that it will privatize 500 state-owned assets in the energy, metals, agriculture, electronics and pharmaceuticals industries.

Soon after the announcement, private South Korean investors and the state-owned oil and gas company Uzbekneftegaz signed a deal for building a $4 billion chemical- and gas-production plant in the northwest of the country, according to local reports.

"Most local companies are probably owned by people who are in government or close to government," said Lilit Gevorgyan, a London-based analyst at IHS Global Insight.

"If they see a foreign company as a competitor, they are likely to employ all sorts of administrative pressures - such as visits by the environmental protection office or revoking work permits - to push the competitor out."

The World Bank last year ranked Uzbekistan 150 out of 183 economies for ease of doing business.

"There are frequent cases of direct pressure and intimidation toward businessmen, including foreign ones," said Vyacheslav Zubenko, an economic analyst for Birzhevoy Lider, a magazine that assesses investment opportunities in the region and is based in Kharkov, Ukraine. "There are cases of raids and seizures of businesses and inhospitable treatment of foreign businesses in Uzbekistan."

Still, analysts say there is a growing awareness by the Uzbek government of the need to modernize its economy to keep up with neighboring countries, such as Kazakhstan, which has been a magnet for foreign investment in the energy sector.

"For the first two decades [of independence from the Soviet Union], the country wanted to focus on homegrown industry and then open up the economy when it's ready," Ms. Gevorgyan said. "But they have become isolated from the rest of the region and the West."

Others point to the U.S. lifting sanctions against Uzbekistan in January as a factor, noting that Uzbekistan - along with Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan - signed agreements with NATO last week for the use of transit routes for coalition troops leaving Afghanistan by the end of 2014.

"At the moment, they're seeing the prospect of an awful lot of money from the Americans in terms of the transit out of Afghanistan," said Mr. Murray, the former ambassador. "My guess is that these liberal economic noises are a part of Karimov trying to give the United States the impression that something is changing, when in fact nothing is changing."

Janelle Dumalaon reported from Berlin.