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AVOID: Vanderbilt. The Commodores might be as tortured a postseason team as there is over the last four years. There was the 2008 blowout to 13th-seeded Siena, the 2010 defeat against 13th-seeded Murray State and last year’s predictable setback against 12th-seeded Richmond. This year’s winner of Vanderbilt Roulette? Harvard, the underseeded and plenty talented Ivy League champ.

EMBRACE: Shaka Smart. Consider that between three CAA tournaments, a College Basketball Invitational and last year’s NCAA run, Smart is 16-3 in postseason games with a conference title, a CBI crown and an unexpected Final Four to his name. The Virginia Commonwealth coach just might just have this postseason thing figured out.

AVOID: Rick Barnes as a low seed. The Texas coach is 1-8 in his NCAA tournament career when his teams are seeded seventh or below. And lo, the Longhorns are a No. 11 seed this year in the East regional. Move Cincinnati along to the round of 32 and think nothing of it.