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He touts his ability to reach across the aisle on issues including the environment but acknowledges he is an ardent fiscal conservative.

“We’ve got to solve these problems,” he said, referring to the rising costs of programs including Medicare and Medicaid. “These trends cannot continue. They are unsustainable.”

Despite their fundraising disadvantage and gloom from analysts, Maryland Republicans insist that Mr. Bartlett has a strong chance at winning re-election.

They also received some good news this week when a poll conducted by OpinionWorks and commissioned by The Baltimore Sun showed Mr. Delaney leading the race by the slimmest of margins, 42 percent to 41 percent.

State GOP executive director David Ferguson said he thinks voters favor Mr. Bartlett’s experience, and that many of them are turned off by the way Democrats sought to shift the balance of power in the district.

“You can be outspent, but 20 years of service to the district and the relationships you’ve built across the state are invaluable,” he said. “Democrats have had to go to the most extreme lengths of gerrymandering to get rid of Congressman Bartlett, but the people will have a clear choice.”

Todd Eberly, coordinator of public policy studies at St. Mary’s College of Maryland, said Mr. Delaney holds the edge, but Mr. Bartlett could benefit from this year’s ballot.

Maryland will hold referendums next week on issues including same-sex marriage, expanded gambling and tuition breaks for illegal immigrants, all of which could draw increased turnout from disapproving conservatives.

“I still would say Delaney has the advantage,” Mr. Eberly said. “But those ballot initiatives could be just enough to carry Bartlett over the finish line.”