NEW YORK (AP) - The vast destruction wreaked by the storm surge in New York could have been prevented with a sea barrier of the type that protects major cities in Europe, some scientists and engineers say. The multibillion-dollar price tag of such a project has been a hindrance, but may appear more palatable after the damage from Superstorm Sandy has been tallied.
“The time has come. The city is finally going to have to face this,” said oceanography professor Malcolm J. Bowman at Long Island’s Stony Brook University. He has warned for years of the potential for a catastrophic storm surge in New York and has advocated for a barrier.
Invited by Bowman and his colleague Douglas Hill, two European engineering firms have drawn up proposals for walling most of New York off from the sea, at a price just above $6 billion.
Before the storm, Mayor Michael Bloomberg’s administration had said it was working to analyze natural risks and the effectiveness of various coast-protection techniques, including storm-surge barriers. But officials had noted that barriers were only one of many ideas, and they have often emphasized more modest, immediate steps the city has taken, such as installing floodgates at sewage plants and raising the ground level while redeveloping a low-lying area in Queens.
“It’s a series of small interventions that cumulatively, over time, will take us to a more natural system” to deal with climate change and rising sea levels, Carter H. Strickland, the city’s environmental commissioner, told The New York Times this summer.
Engineers know this approach as “resilience” _ essentially, toughening the city piece by piece to make it soak up a surge without major damage. But the European engineering firms whose barriers protect the Netherlands and the Russian metropolis of St. Petersburg see this as unrealistic, given the vast amount of expensive infrastructure that underpins New York.
“How does New York as a city retreat into resilient mode? It’s just difficult to see how that would happen,” said Graeme Forsyth, an engineer for CH2M Hill in Glasgow, Scotland.
Sandy sent a record 14-foot storm surge into New York Harbor, flooding subway tunnels and airports. It forced the closure of the stock market for two days, the first time that’s happened for weather-related reasons since 1888. There’s no estimate yet for the cost of the devastation in New York City, but forecasting firm IHS Global Insight put the cost of the damage along the coast at $20 billion, plus $10 billion to $30 billion in lost business.
Forsyth has worked on St. Petersburg’s barrier, which consists of 16 miles of levees and gates shielding the city, built on what was once a swamp, from the Baltic Sea and the river Neva. The centerpiece of his firm’s early-stage proposal for New York is a levee-like barrier that would stretch five miles from the Rockaway peninsula in Queens on Long Island to the Sandy Hook promontory in New Jersey. The barrier would stop a surge of 30 feet, twice the height from Sandy. Gaps would allow ships, river water and tides through, but movable gates could close off all of New York Bay from the Atlantic when necessary. The barrier would protect most of the city, with the exception of Rockaway itself. It would also shield parts of New Jersey.
To be sure, some scientists have reservations about the storm-surge barrier concept.
Some are concerned about how the structures could affect tidal flow and other environmental features of New York Harbor _ and about whether barriers would be socially fair.
“Who gets included to be behind the gate, and who doesn’t get included? … How do you make that decision in a fair way?” Robert Swanson, an oceanographer who is Bowman’s colleague at Stony Brook, said in an August interview.
Other experts question whether barriers would even work in the long term. Klaus H. Jacob, a Columbia University climate-risk researcher who has advised New York City officials, has noted that given the unknowns of climate change, any system designed now could prove inadequate in the future.
But advocates believe New York needs to take bigger steps given its concentration of people and financial infrastructure.
“With the kind of protection that has been considered so far, you cannot protect a multimillion-inhabitant city that runs part of the world economy,” said Piet Dircke, who has worked on the extensive system of sea barriers in the Netherlands with the Dutch engineering firm Arcadis.