- Associated Press - Monday, October 22, 2012

LEESBURG, Va. — How Virginia goes in the presidential election may come down to voters who live amid the small wineries, affluent subdivisions and Civil War battlegrounds of Loudoun County.

Voters in the tony Hamilton County suburbs around the humming riverside economic engine of Cincinnati may tip the balance in Ohio.

To win Florida, either President Obama or Mitt Romney probably will have carried Hillsborough County, where the urban seaport town of Tampa bleeds into communities of Spanish-speaking voters and retired Midwesterners.

Those areas are vastly different, yet each is full of fickle voters and bound by a proclivity to swing between Republican and Democrat every four years. All are main targets as the president and his Republican challenger look for enough victories to reach the 270 electoral votes needed to capture the White House.

The race may come down to an even narrower slice of the electorate than the nine most contested states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin. The outcome probably will depend on what happens in the 106 counties that Republican George W. Bush won in 2004 and that Mr. Obama won in 2008, according to an Associated Press analysis.

The AP reviewed the returns in those nine states during the 2000, 2004 and 2008 elections to identify the counties that have swung between the parties and were most likely to do so again on Nov. 6.

These counties are home to people such as Matt Blunt, 42, an IT manager from Sterling, Va., in Loudoun County. Mr. Blunt voted for Mr. Obama in 2008, hoping he could change Washington’s bitter tone, but now backs Mr. Romney.

“What I see in Romney is the stronger potential for leadership than we’ve seen in the past four years,” Mr. Blunt said, adding that Mr. Obama “hasn’t lived up to the promise.”

In these counties more than anywhere else, voters’ phones ring every night with automated surveys. Every day, glossy mailers hit their mailboxes. TVs crackle day and night with campaign ads.

In fact, voters in the Cincinnati, Tampa and Northern Virginia TV markets have been subjected to presidential campaign advertising totaling $127 million, almost one-fifth the total spent nationwide.

“There’s more — and more concentrated — contact with voters in these counties that swung back and forth in these states than anybody,” said Charlie Black, a veteran Republican campaign strategist and informal Romney adviser.

In a race where any bit of an advantage could make the difference, the campaigns go to all this trouble to sway a tiny fraction of the electorate. In 2008, there were 6.2 million votes from those 106 counties; that was not even 5 percent of the roughly 137 million who voted for president.

There is no single reason to explain why these counties seem to shift with the political wind. Their voters are far from monolithic, having little in common other than their voting patterns.

In most of these places, there are few truly undecided voters, forcing Mr. Obama and Mr. Romney to subdivide the electorate in their attempt for any edge.

In Northern Virginia, Mr. Obama is reaching out to newcomers and younger veterans. Mr. Romney’s pitch is stronger toward retired military members, sportsmen and social conservatives.

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