- Associated Press - Tuesday, October 30, 2012

NINGBO, China — A victory by protesters against the expansion of a chemical plant proves the new rule in China: The authoritarian government is scared of middle-class rebellion and will give in if the demonstrators’ aims are limited and not openly political.

It’s far from a revolution.

China’s nascent middle class, the product of the past decade’s economic boom, is looking for better government, not a different one. They’re especially concerned about health, education and property values, and often resist the growth-at-all-costs model Beijing has pushed.

The past week’s chemical-plant protests reached an unruly crescendo over the weekend, when thousands of people marched through prosperous Ningbo city, clashing with police at times. The city government gave in Sunday and agreed to halt the plant’s expansion.

Even so, the protesters did not back down, staying outside city government offices hours after the concession. About 200 protesters, many of them retirees, returned Monday to make sure the government keeps its word on the oil and ethylene refinery run by a subsidiary of Sinopec, the state-owned petrochemical giant.

“In yesterday’s protest, the ordinary people let their voices be heard,” a 40-year-old businessman who would give only his surname, Bao, said on the protest line Monday.

Government officials, he said, “should say they are completely canceling the project. They should state clearly that they will stop doing these projects in Ningbo and the rest of China.”

The protest in Ningbo — a centuries-old trading center of tree-lined streets and canals south of Shanghai now surrounded by industrial development zones — was well-timed. It came a few weeks before a transfer of power in the ruling Communist Party, and Beijing wants calm nationwide so as not to detract from the leadership transition.

Given that pressure and the fact that many Ningbo officials also have middle-class concerns about air pollution and other quality-of-life issues, the local government found it easier to back off, Peking University sociologist Liu Neng said.

“The government would need lots of courage to insist on keeping this project. The cost would be too high if the protest escalated to another level,” Mr. Liu said. “Since the 18th Party Congress is around the corner, it is very important to maintain stability.”

The protests underscore the challenge the incoming leaders face in governing an increasingly wealthy — and wired — population that is growing more assertive about issues they care about.

Democratic movements in places such as South Korea and Taiwan started with the middle class, and in Taiwan’s case environmental issues featured prominently.

It’s not the first time the government blinked in the face of middle-class protesters.

In the past five years, officials in the northeastern port of Dalian and the southeastern port of Xiamen have relented on plans to operate or build petrochemical plants after large protests. In Xiamen’s case, worries about declining property values figured as much as health issues.

In 2009, when Beijing ordered computer owners nationwide to install software that supposedly blocked pornography but that people feared was a back door to snooping, a national outcry forced it to back down.

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