Mitt Romney’s campaign is working hard to chip away at President Obama’s advantage among early voters, and there are signs the effort is paying off in North Carolina and Florida, two states the Republican nominee can ill afford to lose.
For his part, Mr. Obama, who dominated early voting in key states four years ago, is doing better in Iowa, another battleground state important to both candidates.
In 2008, Mr. Obama built up such big leads among early voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa and North Carolina that he won each state despite losing the Election Day vote, according to voting data compiled by The Associated Press.
Mr. Romney’s campaign won’t predict victory among early voters this year. But a top campaign official is adamant that Mr. Romney will not let Mr. Obama build insurmountable leads among early voters in key states.
“They’re not going to run up the same margins as they did four years ago,” said Rich Beeson, political director for the Romney campaign. “It just isn’t going to happen.”
Early voting for the presidential election has started in more than 30 states — much of it by mail, though some in person — and some important numbers are starting to dribble in. No votes will be counted until Nov. 6. However, North Carolina, Florida and Iowa report the party affiliation of people who have cast ballots. Other states will follow.
Among the 29,400 voters who have cast absentee ballots in North Carolina, 54 percent are registered Republicans and 28 percent are Democrats, according to the United States Elections Project at George Mason University.
It’s a small sample — more than 2.6 million people voted before Election Day in North Carolina in 2008. And these are all mail ballots, which have historically favored Republicans; in-person voting starts Oct. 18 in North Carolina. Nevertheless, Republicans are encouraged because Sen. John McCain lost the state’s early vote by 11 percentage points.
“North Carolina was a place that they totally caught us flat-footed in 2008,” Mr. Beeson said. “They jumped out to a lead and never looked back. You don’t see that happening this time — Republicans have the lead.”
Florida’s sample is even smaller — only 14,500 votes so far — but it too favors Republicans over Democrats, 53 percent to 32 percent. In 2008, nearly 4.6 million voters in Florida cast ballots before Election Day.
Democrats have a big lead in Iowa — as they did in the past two presidential elections. About 60 percent of the 127,100 voters who have cast absentee ballots so far were registered Democrats. Twenty-two percent were Republicans and 18 percent were unaffiliated, according to the United States Elections Project.
In Ohio, a perennial battleground state, Democrats have an edge over Republicans among people who have requested absentee ballots, though relatively few completed ballots have been submitted. Among the 691,000 people who have requested absentee ballots in 49 of the state’s 88 counties, 30 percent are Democrats and 24 percent are Republicans. Forty-six percent are unaffiliated voters, according to data collected by the AP.
Asked about Mr. Romney’s operation, Jeremy Bird, the Obama campaign’s field director, said: “Are they better than John McCain? Sure.” But he added: “Are we better than Barack Obama in 2008? Absolutely.”