It is not unusual during a presidential election cycle to hear talk of an “October surprise.” However, this year it should come as no surprise when, at the end of October, the unemployment rate falls below the much-talked-about 8 percent mark. We have seen some drop already, and once we see the full effect of the Obama administration’s “gutting” of the work requirement from the 1996 welfare reform law, there will be another significant drop.
The administration says the change will affect only those states with a plan to move 20 percent more people from welfare to work. Who approves these plans — or even if they are to be reviewed — we don’t know. But what we do know is that if you are not looking for work, you are not unemployed — at least as far as the 8 percent figure is concerned.
There will be experts on the employment statistics who will note that the drop is misleading because the actual number of people seeking work has gone down, but you can be sure that their voices will be drowned out in the din created by the liberal talking heads and news media who will be shouting that President Obama has us on the road to recovery.
There is a jobs report due out just two days before the election.