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“The prime interest of the new-born coalition is to survive long enough under the increasing pressure to dissolve parliament,” said Bakyt Beshimov, former campaign manager for Mr. Atambayev and now a visiting scholar at Harvard University.

The pressure is increasingly coming from below.

“The call for change is very strong in the regions because the poverty is so bad. They are the ones who are suffering,” said Asel Doolotkeldieva, a researcher specializing in Kyrgyz politics based in Bishkek.

“If you go to the villages, the [anti-democratic] trend is already there,” Ms. Doolotkeldieva added.

Compounding this growing anti-democratic feeling is the looming threat of economic collapse and mounting fears that Kyrgyzstan will default on its $2.8 billion foreign debt.

Kyrgyzstan’s economy relies heavily on the Canadian-owned Kumtor gold mine, and money sent home by migrant workers, while per capita GDP amounts to less than a 10th of neighboring Kazakhstan.

Ultimately, say observers, it will be the new government’s ability to shore up the economy, attract investment and raise living standards that will determine whether it survives the harsh Kyrgyz winter — the season analysts say is most prone to unrest in the agricultural regions.

“The [timing] is really bad,” Ms. Doolotkeldieva said. “The harsh winter is coming, when livestock die and there are electricity cuts. If this coalition falls, there is a major risk of popular dissent against the parliamentary republic.”