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That means their tax liability would be greater, as opposed to tax benefits that result from a wider disparity in incomes or when only one spouse goes to work.

“For many couples, federal recognition of same-sex marriages will mean lower tax bills, but some gay couples will end up paying more,” Roberton Williams, who used to work at the budget office and is cited as a contact for the 2004 report, wrote in a blog post last week for the Tax Policy Center.

Further complicating the matter, the extension of Bush-era tax cuts should reduce the anticipated revenue from marriage penalties, analysts said.

Mr. Tanner said predictions of a budgetary swing from the ruling might be “a bridge too far” because changes will be “pretty modest, either way.”