LAMBRO: Recovery summer on the horizon, or another mirage?

Homeowners move out even as house prices creep up

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Even with the rising home prices in the first quarter, 44 percent of American homeowners were holding mortgages that were greater than their home was worth, according to the Negative Equity Report published by Zillow, the widely read real estate website.

Their report showed that 25.4 percent of homeowners were entirely underwater, and that an additional 18.2 percent were “effectively” underwater because their equity would not produce 20 percent down payment for another home.

Then there is the “bubble” factor. Home prices are rising from rock-bottom levels after the crushing housing debacle in 2008. Left out of most euphoric home-sales reports is the fact that home prices were still well below their 2006 highs by at least 28 percent.

Missing from all the hype about rising home purchases is this stunning factor: U.S. homeownership is at its lowest rate in years and is shrinking.

“An estimated 91,000 U.S. homeowners became renters since the start of 2012, a decrease that pushed America’s homeownership rate to its lowest level in 18 years, a U.S. Census report shows,” according to the Real Estate Blog website.

“Sixty-five percent of Americans owned their homes during the first quarter, compared to 69.2 percent in 2004,” the blog reports.

In other words, the U.S. housing industry still has a long way to go before it will have a significant growth impact in a $17 trillion economy.

Still, home sales are rising, although there will be ups and downs in their overall numbers in the months to come. Whether the upward rise in sales and prices continues remains to be seen. There are still many obstacles ahead in the Obama economy that can undermine future home sales.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has been suggesting lately that the Fed may begin raising its near-zero interest rates, pushing mortgage rates beyond the reach of many Americans.

High unemployment still looms over the economy at 7.5 percent, and the latest mediocre jobs figures suggest we are not going to see major changes on that front anytime soon.

The Obama economy produced only 165,000 jobs in April, far below what is needed to bring the jobless rate down to more normal levels in the next several years.

It’s a little premature to be popping champagne corks on the basis of rising home prices. This is an economy that is still in recovery.

Donald Lambro is a syndicated columnist and contributor to The Washington Times.

© Copyright 2014 The Washington Times, LLC. Click here for reprint permission.

About the Author
Donald Lambro

Donald Lambro

Donald Lambro is the chief political correspondent for The Washington Times, the author of five books and a nationally syndicated columnist. His twice-weekly United Feature Syndicate column appears in newspapers across the country, including The Washington Times. He received the Warren Brookes Award For Excellence In Journalism in 1995 and in that same year was the host and co-writer of ...

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