Mexico capo’s arrest unlikely to slow top cartel

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MEXICO CITY (AP) - Like a Fortune 500 company losing its chief executive, the powerful Sinaloa cartel is likely to stay in business at least in the short term, selling billions of dollars of illegal drugs despite the arrest of its legendary leader, Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman.

But the longer-term fate of a criminal ring likened to an international corporation is anything but clear, as authorities pursue other top leaders and weaker rivals dream of moving in.

Guzman’s arrest Saturday was undoubtedly a major blow, coming on the heels of more than a dozen arrests of key lieutenants and lower-level operators in recent months. Yet the cartel still has a worldwide distribution network and is the major supplier of cocaine to the United States. The operation did not touch the cartel’s immense political power, nurtured through the bribery of corrupt officials, or its thriving money laundering operations.

“As long as these other structures remain in place, all things being equal, Sinaloa will be able to continue to operate if not as normal, at least as the most powerful criminal organization in Mexico,” said David Shirk, director of the University of San Diego’s Justice in Mexico Project.

Guzman, who made Forbes magazine’s lists of billionaires and most powerful people, was first among equals with partners Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada and Juan Jose Esparragoza, known as “El Azul,” both of whom remain at large.

Despite rumors to the contrary, Guzman worked closely with Zambada. Guillermo Valdes, former head of Mexico’s top domestic intelligence agency, said the pair shared a clear vision, not only with respect to their adversaries but also with their business plan for trafficking cocaine, marijuana, heroin and methamphetamine in some 54 countries.

On Monday, a senior Drug Enforcement Administration official told The Associated Press that the current drug intelligence assessment indicates that Zambada is likely to be the next chief of the Sinaloa cartel.

The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss specific details of Guzman’s arrest in Mexico, said the DEA doesn’t anticipate that Guzman’s absence will have an immediate effect on cartel operations because it has evolved from a gang into a worldwide organization.

In other recent takedowns of major cartels, the Mexican government had to hit more than one leader before the organizations were dismantled or scattered into smaller gangs. One by one, the Arellano Felix brothers in Tijuana were arrested or killed over the last decade, as were the Beltran Leyva brothers from 2008 to 2011. Though the Mexican marines killed Zeta leader Heriberto Lazcano Lazcano in October 2012, the power of the group did not diminish until the other leader, Miguel Angel Trevino Morales, was arrested last summer.

Some predict Sinaloa is about to suffer the same fate.

U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, who chairs the House Committee on Homeland Security, said to expect more arrests because authorities penetrated the cartel’s communications system in catching Guzman.

“Our ability to crack their code will not bode well for their future,” he said, comparing Guzman’s capture to the 1993 killing of Pablo Escobar of Colombia’s Medellin cartel, once a powerful criminal organization. Its demise helped grow cartels such as Sinaloa.

When Escobar fell, “the cartels started to unravel.”

In fact, some fear Guzman’s capture could spark more violence, though no Mexican cartels seem strong enough at the moment to make a major play.

Sinaloa’s main rivals, the Zetas, have been substantially weakened, and other groups have become too local to rival Guzman’s international reach.

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