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“Today, the most important thing that’s affecting us is the renewable fuel standard,” Bill Kleese, chairman and CEO of Valero Energy Corp., told Mr. Wyden and his Senate committee last year. “The [Renewable Fuel Standard] must be fixed. This cost is just skyrocketing.”

Congress is likely to wrestle with that question over the next few years, as well as with other green-energy incentives.

As for the gasoline market, the future is hard to project because of the many variables, including what OPEC leaders will do at a meeting in June. Analysts expect some of them to try to cut production.

But from the U.S. standpoint, the supply will be there. The question is whether the rest of an aging network can process it.

“There’s reason to believe this could be a sustainable trend because we have just an abundance of domestic production, but at the same time we need a lot of infrastructure to catch up,” Mr. Laskoski said.